Long-Term International Trade Analysis Measuring Spatial Extension of Globalization: Kuznets or Hysteresis Paradigm?
How is trade globalizing? And how can globalization of trade be modeled? Based on a new spatial inequality metric applied to WTO cross table of world trade figures from 2000 to 2016, the spatial evolution of globalization extension is measured and can be interpreted according to the globalization types model. The result shows that after a sustained globalization tendency in the time period 2003–2012, since 2013 the international trade system is again de-globalizing. These are indications that for trade globalization may apply the inverse Kuznets paradigm. The differentiated regional globalization evolution can be explained with the globalization types respectively for the globalization expansion by Heckscher-Ohlin and Stolper-Samuelson trade models and for the ongoing de-globalization period by Linder’s trade model.
KeywordsGlobalization Types Metric Inequality Model Kuznets Hysteresis
My very special thank goes to WTO, especially to Christoph Degain, providing me with the latest available trade data as well as with the data from the beginning of WTO cross trade tabulation gathering, encouraging this research.
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