Inflation, Unemployment and the NAIRU in Poland

  • Pavlos StamatiouEmail author
  • Chaido Dritsaki
Conference paper
Part of the Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics book series (SPBE)


The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate, in the case of Poland over the period 1992–2017, within the Phillips curve context. Several econometric techniques are applied, including the bounds testing (ARDL) approach developed by Pesaran et al. (J Appl Econometrics 16(3):289–326, 2001) as well as Toda and Yamamoto (J Econometrics 66:225–250, 1995) modification of the Granger causality test (no-causality approach) in a two-variable vector autoregression (VAR) model. The results of the study confirm a long run relationship among the examined variables for the aforementioned period. Finally, the findings of Toda and Yamamoto (J Econometrics 66:225–250, 1995) analysis indicate a unidirectional causality between unemployment rate and inflation with direction from unemployment rate to inflation. Policy implications are then explored in the conclusions.


Inflation Unemployment NAIRU Poland Autoregressive distributed lag cointegration test Toda-Yamamoto causality test 

JEL Classification

C22 C32 E31 E50 


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Accounting and FinanceWestern Macedonia University of Applied SciencesKozaniGreece

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