Impacts of Climate Change on Basin Hydrology and the Availability of Water Resources
Surface energy, water balance components and related hydrological variables of the Seyhan River basin Turkey were estimated through the off-line simulation of a land surface model forced by the output of a regional climate model for both present and future conditions. Future climate conditions were produced by two different general circulation models, and land-cover conditions were determined under three land-use scenarios. The two climate conditions and the three land-use scenarios were combined in six different simulations for the future. Vegetation parameters were adjusted for the future land-use scenarios by applying the average future seasonal cycle for each vegetation class. The maximum snow water equivalent for the study area was almost 0.4 Gt in the present climate and decreased to as little as 0.1 Gt in the future climate. In the present climate, annual evaporation in irrigated areas is about 800 mm, and about 500 mm of irrigation water must be supplied to maintain soil wetness during the growing season. Over the study area, annual average values were projected to decrease by 170 mm for precipitation, about 40 mm for evaporation and about 110 mm for runoff. The proportional impact on runoff is particularly significant.
KeywordsBasin hydrology Climate change Land surface model Seyhan River basin Water resources availability
This research was financially supported by the Impact of Climate Changes on Agricultural Production System in the Arid Areas (ICCAP) project, administered by the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN) and the Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK). This work was also supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (S-5-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
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