Total Stability Failure Probability of a Ship in Beam Wind and Waves: Model Experiment and Numerical Simulation

  • Takumi Kubo
  • Naoya UmedaEmail author
  • Satoshi Izawa
  • Akihiko Matsuda
Part of the Fluid Mechanics and Its Applications book series (FMIA, volume 119)


To establish second-generation intact stability criteria, the International Maritime Organization requires experimentally validated numerical simulation models for stability under the dead ship condition. Here, a beam wind and wave condition is selected as the worst-case scenario and the total-stability-failure probability is quantified. The authors developed a coupled sway–heave–roll–pitch numerical model and compared it with physical experiments of a ship model in artificial irregular beam waves and fluctuating beam wind. The results indicate that the probability of total stability failure estimated by the simulation exists within the confidence interval range of those estimated by the experiment.



This study was supported by Grant-in Aids for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Nos. 21360427 and 15H02327) and was partly carried out as a research activity of the Stability Project of the Japan Ship Technology Research Association in the fiscal year of 2011, funded by the Nippon Foundation. The authors sincerely thank these organisations. The authors also thank Prof. Alberto Francescutto and Dr. Gabriele Bulian from the University of Trieste for kindly providing data of the subject ship. The authors are grateful to Dr. Daisuke Terada from NRIFE and Mr. Keisuke Yamane, Mses. Hisako Kubo, Ayumi Morimoto and Fuka Yoshiyama from Osaka University for their assistance during the experiments. The authors would like to thank Enago ( for the professional English language review.


  1. Bulian, G. and Francescutto, A. 2004. “A Simplified Modular Approach for the Prediction of the Roll Motion Due to the Combined Action of Wind and Waves.” Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment, Vol. 218, pp. 189 – 212.Google Scholar
  2. Davenport, A. G., 1961, “The spectrum of horizontal gustiness near the ground in strong winds”, Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 87, pp. 194–211.Google Scholar
  3. Fujiwara, T., Ueno, M. and Nimura, T., 1998, “Estimation of Wind Forces and Moments Acting on Ships”, Journal of Society of Naval Architects of Japan, Vol. 183, pp. 77–90, (in Japanese).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. IMO, 2008, “Explanatory Notes to the International Code on Intact Stability”, MSC.1/Circ. 1281, London.Google Scholar
  5. IMO, 2012, “Development of Second Generation Intact Stability Criteria - Report of the Working Group (part I)”, SLF 54/WP.3, London.Google Scholar
  6. Kajita, E., and Tanaka, K., 1986, “Experimental Techniques for Behaviors of Offshore Structures Under Extreme Environmental Conditions”, Proceedings of the 3rd Marine Dynamics Symposium, The Society of Naval Architects of Japan, pp. 375–395, (in Japanese).Google Scholar
  7. Kubo, T., Maeda, E., and Umeda, N., 2010, “Theoretical Methodology for Quantifying Probability of Stability Failure for a Ship in Beam Wind and Waves and its Numerical Validation”, Proceedings of 4th International Maritime Conference on Design for Safety, Trieste, pp. 1–8.Google Scholar
  8. Lee, C. M., and Kim, K. H., 1982, “Prediction of Ships in Damaged Condition in Waves”, Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles, Tokyo, pp. 287–301.Google Scholar
  9. Ogawa, Y., de Kat, J. O., and Ishida, S., 2006, “Analytical Study of the Effect of Drift Motion on the Capsizing Probability under Dead Ship Condition”, Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles, Rio de Janeiro, Vol. 1, pp. 29–36.Google Scholar
  10. Salvesen, N., Tuck, E. O., and Faltinsen, O., 1970, “Ship Motions and Sea Load”, Transaction of the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers, Vol. 78, pp. 250–287.Google Scholar
  11. Shaughnessy, J., Nehrling, B. C., and Compton, R. H., 1994, “Some Observations on Experimental Techniques for Modeling Ship Stability in Wind and Waves”, Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Stability of Ships and Ocean Vehicles, Melbourne, Vol. 3, pp. 21–37.Google Scholar
  12. Tasai, F., 1965, “On the Equation of Rolling of a Ship”, Bulletin of Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Vol. 26, pp. 51–57 (in Japanese).Google Scholar
  13. Tellkamp, J. and Cramer, H. 2002, “A Methodology for Design Evaluation of Damage Stability”, Proceedings of the 6th International Ship Stability Workshop, New York, pp. 1.5.1–1.5. 9.Google Scholar
  14. Umeda, N., Koga, S., Ueda, J., Maeda, E., Tsukamoto, I., and Paroka, D., 2007, “Methodology for Calculating Capsizing Probability for a Ship under Dead Ship Condition“, Proceedings of the 9th International Ship Stability Workshop, Hamburg, pp. 1.2.1–1.2.19.Google Scholar
  15. Umeda, N., Izawa, S., Sano, H., Kubo, H., and Yamane, K., 2011, “Validation Attempts on Draft New Generation Intact Stability Criteria”, Proceedings of the 12th International Ship Stability Workshop, Washington D.C., pp. 19–26.Google Scholar
  16. Vassalos, D., Jasionowski, A., and Cichowicz, J., 2004, “Issues Related to the Weather Criterion”, International Shipbuilding Progress, Vol. 51, No. 2/3, pp. 251–271.Google Scholar
  17. Watanabe, Y., 1938, “Some Contributions of the Theory of Rolling.” Transactions of Institution of Naval Architects, Vol. 80, pp. 408–432.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Takumi Kubo
    • 1
  • Naoya Umeda
    • 1
    Email author
  • Satoshi Izawa
    • 1
  • Akihiko Matsuda
    • 2
  1. 1.Osaka UniversityOsakaJapan
  2. 2.National Research Institute of Fisheries EngineeringHasakiJapan

Personalised recommendations