Information, Processing Capacity, and Judgment Bias in Risk Assessment
Abstract
Many agricultural economists cite risk as one of the most important elements of the farm problem (Gardner 1992). The focus of this literature has been to estimate the level of risk aversion across decision makers, and then estimate the effects of risk aversion on market movements (see for example Binswanger 1980, Just and Pope 1987, Just and Zilberman 1983). Arrow (1971) attributed risk aversion to the curvature of the individual’s utility of wealth function. This measure of risk aversion is based on the idea that diminishing marginal utility of wealth leads one to value larger amounts of money less than one would otherwise, and hence engage in fewer risks involving possible large gains or losses.
Keywords
Utility Function Risk Aversion Marginal Utility Risk Attitude Risk PreferencePreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
- Alpert, M., and H. Raiffa. 1982. “A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors.” In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Arrow, K.J. 1971. Essays on the Theory of Risk Bearing. Chicago, IL: Markham Publishing Co.Google Scholar
- Arrow, K.J. 1982. “Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics.” Economic Inquiry 20: 1–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Bar-Shira, Z., R.E. Just, and D. Zilberman. 1997. “Estimation of Farmers’ Risk Attitude: An Econometric Approach.” Agricultural Economics 17: 211–222.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Bernoulli, D. 1954. “Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk” (originally published in 1738). Econometrica 22: 23–63.Google Scholar
- Binswanger, H.P. 1980. “Attitudes Toward Risk: Experimental Measurement in Rural India.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 62: 395–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Binswanger, H.P. 1981. “Attitude Toward Risk: Theoretical Implication of Experiment in Rural India.” Economic Journal 91: 867–890.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Binswanger, H.P. 1982. “Empirical Estimation and Use of Risk Preference Discussion.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 64: 391–393.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Camerer, C. 1987. “Do Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidence.” American Economic Review 77: 981–997.Google Scholar
- Camerer, C. 1995. “Individual Decision Making.” In J.H. Kagel and A.E. Roth, eds., The Handbook of Experimental Economics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
- De Bondt, W.F.M., and R.H. Thaler. 1985. “Does the Stock Market Overreact?” Journal of Finance 40: 793–805.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Dillon, J.L., and P.L. Scandizzo. 1978. “Risk Attitudes of Subsistence Farmers in Northeast Brazil: a Sampling Approach.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 60: 425–434.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Edwards, W. 1982. “Conservatism in Human Information Processing.” In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Eekhoudt, L.R., L. Bauwens, E. Briys, and P. Scarmure. 1991. “The Law of Large (Small?) Numbers and the Demand for Insurance.” Journal of Risk and Insurance 58: 438–451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Ferrell, W.R., and P.J. McGoey. 1980. “A Model of Calibration for Subjective Probabilities.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 26: 32–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Gardner, B.L. 1992. “Changing Economic Perspectives on the Farm Problem.” Journal of Economic Literature 30: 62–101.Google Scholar
- Grether, D.M. 1980. “Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 95: 537–557.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Grether, D.M. 1990. “Testing Bayes Rule and the Representative Heuristic: Some Experimental Evidence.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 17: 31–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Hansson, B. 1988. “Risk Aversion as a Problem of Cojoint Measurement.” In P. Gardenfors and N.-E. Sahlin, eds., Decision, Probability, and Utility. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Haruvy, E., I. Erev, and D. Sonsino. 2001. “The Medium Prizes Paradox: Evidence From a Simulated Casino.” Presented at the Allied Social Science Association Meetings, New Orleans, LA.Google Scholar
- Hogarth, R.M., and H.J. Einhorn. 1992. “Order Effects in Belief Updating: the Belief Adjustment Model.” Cognitive Psychology 24: l-55.Google Scholar
- Just, D.R. Forthcoming. “Learning and Information.” Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California Berkeley.Google Scholar
- Just, R.E., and R.D. Pope. 1987. “Stochastic Specification of Production Function and Economic Implications.” Journal of Econometrics 7: 67–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Just, R.E., and D. Zilberman. 1983. “Stochastic Structure, Farm Size and Technology Adoption in Developing Agriculture.” Oxford Economic Papers 35: 307–328.Google Scholar
- Kahneman, D., P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.). 1982. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica 47: 263–292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky. 1982. “Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness.” In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Lichtenstein, S., B. Frischhoff, and L.D. Phillips. 1982. “Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980.” In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Machina, M.J. 1982. “Expected Utility Analysis Without the Independence Axiom.” Econometrica 50: 277–323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Markowitz, H. 1952. “The Utility of Wealth.” Journal of Political Economy 60: 151–158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Moscardi, E., and A. de Janvry. 1977. “Attitudes Toward Risk Among Peasants: An Econometric Approach.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 59: 710–716.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Murphy, A.H., and R.L. Winkler. 1974. “Subjective Probability Forecasting Experiments in Meteorology: Some Preliminary Results.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 55: 1206–1216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Nelson, R.G., and D.A. Bessler. 1989. “Subjective Probabilities and Scoring Rules: Experimental Evidence.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71: 363–369.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Oskamp, S. 1982. “Overconfidence in Case-Study Judgments.” In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Rabin, M. 1998. “Psychology and Economics.” Journal of Economic Literature 36: 11–46.Google Scholar
- Rabin, M. 2000a. “Diminishing Marginal Utility of Wealth Cannot Explain Risk Aversion.” Working Paper No. E00–287. Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
- Rabin, M. 2000b. “Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem.” Working Paper No. E00–279. Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
- Rabin, M. 2000c. “Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers.” In progress. Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
- Sandmo, A. 1971. “On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty.” American Economic Review 61: 65–73.Google Scholar
- Schultz, T. 1975. “The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria.” Journal of Economic Literature 13: 827–837.Google Scholar
- Shahabuddin, Q., S. Mestelman, and D. Feeny. 1986. “Peasant Behaviour Towards Risk and Socio-Economic and Structural Characteristics of Farm Households in Bangladesh.” Oxford Economic Papers 38: 122–130.Google Scholar
- Simon, H.A. 1955. “A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 69: 99–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Simon, H.A. 1959. “Theories of Decision-Making in Economics and Behavioral Science.” American Economic Review 49: 253–283.Google Scholar
- Simon, H.A. 1978. “Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought.” American Economic Review 68: 1–16.Google Scholar
- Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman. 1982a. “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers.” In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman. 1982b. “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Williams, A.W. 1987. “The Formation of Price Forecasts in Experimental Markets.” The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 19: 1–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wolf, S., D.R. Just, and D. Zilberman. 2001. “Between Data and Decisions: The Organization of Agricultural Economic Information Systems.” Research Policy 30: 121–141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Yaari, M.E. 1987. “The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk.” Econometrica 55: 95–115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar