A Comprehensive Back-Calculation Framework for the Estimation and Prediction of AIDS Cases

  • Jerry Lawless
  • Jianguo Sun

Abstract

We discuss a model for the occurrence of AIDS cases that incorporates uncertainty due to the HIV infection process, incubation times, and delays in the reporting of AIDS cases. The analysis is based on AIDS cases diagnosed and reported by a given time, and provides standard errors for estimates and predictions that recognize the different sources of uncertainty. The approach is illustrated on U.S. AIDS cases reported to the end of 1989.

Keywords

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevalence Asymptotic Covariance Matrix Delay Probability 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media New York 1992

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jerry Lawless
    • 1
  • Jianguo Sun
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Statistics and Actuarial ScienceUniversity of WaterlooWaterlooCanada

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