Abstract
Measuring the potential costs of catastrophic climatic events is a challenging but important exercise, as the occurrence of such events is usually associated with substantial damage and high uncertainty. Risk assessments and measures to evaluate adaptation should focus on an appropriate time horizon that is consistent with the frequency of events, since a short-term view may disproportionally deflate the risk involved. This chapter illustrates key concepts that need to be considered when quantitatively evaluating adaptation to extreme climate events. Important issues include: measuring uncertainty using a probability distribution; the time value of money; the choice of discount rate values; the costs and benefits of adaptation; and sustainable decision making.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
This also means that the extended fire seasons may reduce the number of days suitable for controlled burning which is an important adaptation measure currently practised in Australia (Lucas et al. 2007).
References
Bank for International Settlements (2001) Consultative document: operational risk. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/publ/bcbsca07.pdf
Chen K (2005) Counting bushfire-prone addresses in the greater Sydney region. In: Morrison RJ, Quin S, Bryant EA (eds) Planning for natural hazards—how can we mitigate the impacts? Proceedings of a symposium, 2–5 Feb 2005, University of Wollongong, GeoQuEST Research Centre, pp 1–10
Fishman GS (1996) Monte Carlo. Springer, New York, NY
Garnaut R (2011) The Garnaut review 2011: Australia in the global response to climate change. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY
Hasson AEA, Mills GA, Timbal B, Walsh K (2009) Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather events over Southeastern Australia. Clim Res 39(2):159–172
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. In Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE et al (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY
Keighley T, Longden T, Mathew S, Trück S (2018) Quantifying catastrophic and climate impacted hazards based on local expert opinions. J Environ Manage 205:262–273
Klugman SA, Panjer HH, Willmot GE (2012) Loss models: from data to decisions, 4th Edn. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ
Lucas C, Hennessy K, Mills G, Bathols J (2007) Bushfire weather in Southeast Australia: recent trends and projected climate change impacts. Consultancy report prepared for The Climate Institute of Australia. Retrieved from http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/getdoc/c71b6858-c387-41c0-8a89-b351460eba68/TEN.056.001.0001.pdf
Marglin S (1963) The social rate of discount and the optimal rate of investment. Quart J Econ 77:95–111
Mathew S, Trück S, Henderson-Sellers A (2012) Kochi, India case study of climate adaptation to floods: ranking local government investment options. Glob Environ Change 22(1):308–319
McAneney J, Chen K, Pitman A (2009) 100-years of Australian bushfire property losses: is the risk significant and is it increasing? J Environ Manage 90(8):2819–2822
McGee TK (2011) Public engagement in neighbourhood level wildfire mitigation and preparedness: case studies from Canada, the US and Australia. J Environ Manage 92(10):2524–2532
Murphy BF, Timbal B (2008) A review of recent climate variability and climate change in southeastern Australia. Int J Climatol J Royal Meteorol Soc 28(7):859–879
NSW Rural Fire Service (2015) Guide for bushfire prone land mapping. Retrieved from http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/4412/Guideline-for-Councils-to-Bushfire-Prone-Area-Land-Mapping.pdf
Ramsay FP (1928) A mathematical theory of saving. Econ J 38(152):543–559
Ross H, Carter RW (2011) Natural disasters and community resilience. Australas J Environ Manage 18(1):1–5
Shevchenko PV, Wüthrich MV (2006) The structural modelling of operational risk via Bayesian inference: combining loss data with expert opinions. J Oper Risk 1(3):3–26
Stern N (2006). Stern review: the economics of climate change. United Kingdom. Retrieved from http://mudancasclimaticas.cptec.inpe.br/~rmclima/pdfs/destaques/sternreview_report_complete.pdf
Taplin R, Henderson-Sellers A, Trück S, Mathew S, Weng H, Street M, Bradford W, Scott J, Davies P, Hayward L (2010) Economic evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for local government. Ku-ring-gai Council case study
Trück S, Bradford W, Henderson-Sellers A, Mathew S, Scott J, Street M, Taplin R (2010) Assessing climate change adaptation options for local governments. In: You Y, Henderson-Sellers A (eds) Climate change monitoring and strategy. Sydney University Press, Sydney, Australia, pp 362–400
Truong C, Trück S (2016) It’s not now or never: implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events. Eur J Oper Res 253(3):856–868
Truong C, Trück S, Mathew S (2018) Managing risks from climate impacted hazards—the value of investment flexibility under uncertainty. Eur J Oper Res 269(1):132–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.07.012
UNISDR (The United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction) (2016) 2015 disasters in numbers. Retrieved from http://www.unisdr.org/files/47804_2015disastertrendsinfographic.pdf
United Nations (1992) The Rio declaration on environment and development. Retrieved from http://www.unesco.org/education/pdf/RIO_E.PDF
Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission (2010) 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission final report. Summary. Retrieved from http://royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Commission-Reports/Final-Report.html
West JJ, Small MJ, Dowlatabadi H (2001) Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise. Clim Change 48(2–3):317–342
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Trück, S., Truong, C., Keighley, T., Liu, F., Mathew, S. (2020). Climate Change and Extreme Events: Risk Assessment of Adaptation in Sydney. In: Wood, L., Tan, L., Breyer, Y., Hawse, S. (eds) Industry and Higher Education. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0874-5_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0874-5_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-15-0873-8
Online ISBN: 978-981-15-0874-5
eBook Packages: EducationEducation (R0)