Abstract
For boosting country’s economic growth, it is essential to know “What is demographic dividend and what is its role and significance in increasing the National Income?” During the demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality, age structure of population undergoes age-structural changes. As a consequence, a stage comes when the rate of growth of population in the working ages exceeds the growth rate of total population. In economic terms, it means that production exceeds the consumption and the surplus available could be used for economic growth. It has been empirically found that the relationship between GDP growth rate and demographic dividend is positive and its impact on economic growth of a country could be miraculous. However, according to Lee and Mason (Finance and Development, 43(3), 2006), demographic dividend is a one-time opportunity, available only for short duration of 30 years to 50 years, and it is not automatic. The latter implies that for reaping maximum benefit of this period, the respective governments should assert to create employment for the new entrants to the working-age groups. This requires planning in advance to offer jobs to maximum number of youths. For the planning, it is necessary to know the expected time when the window of economic opportunity would open and how long the favourable period would last. The present chapter, using the latest available United Nations population projections made in 2017 and released in 2018, gives the estimated years of opening and closure of demographic window and thus duration of reaping economic benefits for the countries of the Middle East.
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Notes
- 1.
Mortality has been incorporated into projections by estimating death rates by age groups and sex. Where mortality is relatively high and the resulting life expectancy at birth was relatively low, changes in mortality also play an important role in future population size; when mortality is already low and life expectancy has risen to high levels, mortality has much less effect (UN 2017).
- 2.
Net migration rate (NMR) is defined as the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants in a calendar year divided by the mid-year population of the receiving country over the year. NMR is expressed as net number of migrants per 1000 population (UN 2017).
References
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Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). Back to Basics: What Is the Demographic Dividend? Finance & Development, 43(3), 16–17 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund).
Miller, T. (2008, October 7–9). Measuring Economic and Demographic Dependency. Paper Presented at the UNFPA/IFS Expert Group Meeting on Mainstreaming Age Structural Transition into Economic Development and Planning. Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna.
Saxena, P. C. (2013). Demographic Profile of the Arab Countries: Analysis of the Ageing Phenomenon. Beirut: United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia.
Saxena, P. (2017). The Nexus Between Components of Population Change and Its Impact on Timing of Opening and Duration of Reaping Demographic Dividend: Can This Period of Economic Miracle be Augmented? – Empirical Evidence from the Arab Countries. Demography India, 46(2), 1–13.
United Nations. (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. Released in 2018 by the Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (DESA), United Nations.
Acknowledgement
The author is grateful to Dr. Kuldeep Kumar, Professor and Head, Department of Economics and Statistics, Business School, Bond University, Gold Coast, Australia, for inviting him to present an earlier version of this chapter at the faculty seminar organized for the faculty and research students of the Business School in August 2017. Some suggestions, which were received from the faculty, have been incorporated in the article and are gratefully acknowledged. The author is grateful to his daughter Dr. Shailly Saxena and son-in-law Dr. Ratnesh Srivastav for providing all the necessary help and facilities for this research during his stay in Gold Coast, Australia. The help given by Mr. D. Mestry, Librarian, IIPS, and Mr. D. More in preparation of this chapter is gratefully acknowledged.
The present chapter is the revised and enlarged version of the article entitled “On Harvesting Demographic Dividend in the Middle East Countries”, presented at the Business School of the Bond University, Gold Coast, Australia, in August 2017.
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Saxena, P. (2019). Demographic Dividend in the Middle East Countries: An Empirical Assessment. In: Rajan, S.I., Saxena, P. (eds) India’s Low-Skilled Migration to the Middle East. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9224-5_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9224-5_2
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