Abstract
According to the 2015 Paris Agreement, Japan is to approach the target of a 26% reduction of its 2013 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. To attain this target, it is necessary to transcend the current fossil energy-based society and shift to a renewable energy-oriented society. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-free fuels must become the predominant source of energy, in addition to the introduction of energy conservation technologies in each sector of manufacturing, transportation, and business and in households. Fuel cells and hydrogen, therefore, are gaining much attention. Our research group in “Knowledge Hub Aichi” is developing a new hydrogen-generating system, which directly decomposes hydrogen from methane (directly decomposition of methane, DDM) and separates carbon as a solid substance without CO2 emissions. We have estimated DDM’s CO2 reduction effects and compared them to those in the current steam reforming of methane (SRM) by applying a scenario input-output analysis with a multiregional input-output table (MRIOT). For a certain amount of hydrogen production, DDM directly emits 14.2% of the CO2 emitted by SRM or 24.5% when considering its indirect effect on the industry. Under the assumption that 800,000 fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) will be diffused in Japan before 2030, the total reduction of CO2 from DDM is estimated as 21.8% more than that from SRM, when FCVs replace conventional vehicles. The vehicle substitution requires a regional concentration of vehicle production in the Aichi Prefecture, but then the production of Aichi would increase with the resulting additional CO2 emission. DDM’s introduction suppresses the increase of CO2 emissions in the industry.
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Notes
- 1.
The feature of this agreement is that each country sets an individual voluntary reduction target on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
- 2.
Hydrogen, a source of energy for a fuel cell, can be generated in various ways. Representative examples include extraction from fossil fuels or electrolysis of water. Currently, it is already in practical use to generate hydrogen by steam reforming from petroleum, natural gas, or gasification of coal. These methods, however, have the disadvantage that they emit CO2 in the process of generating hydrogen.
- 3.
These data are obtained from Next Generation Vehicle Promotion Center (2018).
- 4.
- 5.
According to the report, the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Strategic Roadmap, released in March 2016 by the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Strategy Council of METI, Japan, the number of fuel cell vehicles (stock base) is projected to be 800,000 units by 2030. The price of FCVs to be realized would be equivalent to that of a hybrid vehicle price by 2025. In addition, the plan is to set up 900 hydrogen stations by 2030. The price of hydrogen is equal to or less than cost of fuel for hybrid vehicles.
- 6.
Necessary data are obtained from Chubu Region Institute for Social and Economic Research (2015).
- 7.
The average mileage of conventional vehicles is obtained from the survey data in the Next-Generation Vehicle Promotion Center report on the diffusion of clean-energy vehicles in 2017.
- 8.
Fuel efficiency of gasoline vehicles in 2015 is calculated from the Fuel Consumption Statistics of Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport.
- 9.
This value is from the Ministry of Resources and Energy, 2015.
- 10.
The CO2 emission coefficient for gasoline is 2.322 kg-CO2/l.
- 11.
SRM and DDM require 41.2 kJ/mol-H2 and 37.4 kJ/mol-H2, respectively. Methane’s heat value is 39.8 MJ/Nm3, and its molar volume is 22.4 l; then, the volume of heating methane is calculated.
- 12.
We assume that there is no difference among the regions on the choice of hydrogen production technologies.
- 13.
These values are interpreted as the stable states of the changes when a certain amount of increases in final demands are sustained.
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Acknowledgment
This paper is part of the research results of “Development of the Methane direct decomposition hydrogen production system” of Project E, Priority Research Project II, at Knowledge Hub Aichi, Japan. We are grateful for the financial support.
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Yamada, M., Fujikawa, K., Umeda, Y. (2019). Scenario Input-Output Analysis on the Diffusion of Fuel Cell Vehicles and Alternative Hydrogen Supply Systems Using MRIOT. In: Nakayama, K., Miyata, Y. (eds) Theoretical and Empirical Analysis in Environmental Economics. New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives, vol 34. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2363-8_8
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