Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to show that we can accurately forecast the recent drastic increases of Korean tourists to Fukuoka and their sharp drops after 2008 based on the travel demand function estimated by the deliberate use of micro-data obtained from the survey of inbound behaviors of Korean tourists conducted in 2000. Through showing this, we have demonstrated a way to solve the two inherent problems our questionnaire survey has; that is, one is the difficulty to get income data and the other the time limitation to perform detailed stated preference questions. To avoid detailed stated preference questions, we conceptualize respondents’ responses to the price changes of each of two travel modes as the changes of demand for the composite travel service composed of sea line and air flight. Based on this conceptualization, we have estimated a travel demand function for the composite travel service from Busan and Fukuoka. To enable us to estimate the travel demand function without income data, we made ratios to cancel out the income term in the travel demand function. The estimated result clearly shows that we could have predicted the recent surges and drops of Korean tourists to Fukuoka almost accurately at the time of 2000.
This chapter is based on the paper, Saburo Saito, Hiroyuki Motomura [8], “Travel demand function of Korean tourists to Kyushu: Could we have accurately predicted the drastic increase of Korean visitors to Kyushu?” presented at the 46th Annual Meeting of JSRSAI (Japan Section of Reginal Science Association International), 2009, which is revised for this chapter.
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Notes
- 1.
As of 2018, five LCCs have air route between Fukuoka and Korea. Air Busan entered in 2010, T’way Airlines in 2011, Jeju Air in 2012, Jin Air in 2014, and Eastar Jet in 2016.
- 2.
Let h(·) be a strictly increasing function. Let g(x) be a function of homogeneous of degree 1. Then the function h(g(x)) is called a homothetic function.
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Saito, S., Motomura, H., Iwami, M. (2018). Travel Demand Function of Korean Tourists to Kyushu Region, Japan. In: Saito, S., Yamashiro, K. (eds) Advances in Kaiyu Studies. New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives, vol 19. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1739-2_21
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1739-2_21
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