Abstract
Various tourist attractions and events have been conducted to revitalize towns. As for what kinds of effects tourist attractions and events have on towns, organizers usually announce only the approximate number of visitors. However if a town is regarded as one entity for attaining the goal of its revitalization, the effects of those events cannot be said to be estimated and identified, unless they are clarified in such a way as how many people participated in those events and how their effects are spread over to what extent and to which part of the town. In this study, we propose a method to make it possible to measure the effects of those events on a town in that way. More specifically, we estimate the number of event participants by using the consistent method to estimate consumer shop-around patterns based on the data obtained from the on-site survey of Kaiyu behaviors, which enables to estimate the net number of incoming visitors to the town. Using this estimation method, we measure the effect of the Kumamoto Castle Festival on a number of visitors’ basis as well as on a monetary basis, by comparing visitors who visited with the purpose for attending the festival and those who did not. From the analysis, we found that the visitors who came with the purpose for attending the Kumamoto Castle Festival shopped around along the arcades adjoining to the festival venue. Thus the festival effects were spread over these arcades, and the total amount of the effect on a monetary basis was 52,670,000 yen (or 526,700 dollars).
This chapter is based on the paper of Saburo Saito, Takahiro Sato, and Kosuke Yamashiro [1], “Consistent Estimation of Shop-around Behavior and Measurement of the Event Effects Spread Over City Center: An application to the measurement of the effect of Kumamoto Castle Festival,” Papers of the 26th Annual Meeting of The Japan Association for Real Estate Sciences, vol. 26, pp. 175–182, 2010, which is modified for this chapter.
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- 1.
Kumamoto City is the capital city of Kumamoto Prefecture with a long history and has the Kumamoto Castle near its city center, which is a symbol of the town. It is located in the midst of Kyushu Island with population of 740,822 (census 2015) within its administrative division and population 1,461,794 (census 2010) for its 1.5% metropolitan area. Kumamoto City was designated as one of ordinance-designated cities in Japan in 2011.
- 2.
This research was also reported in [7].
- 3.
As this percentage of the festival purpose and the non-festival purposes, it would be more precise to use the percentage obtained from one sampling point. Here we use that from the total samples because of the small number of samples collected.
- 4.
Refer to Saito et al. [3] for details including the derivation of the equation.
- 5.
The density calculation here sets the density of the total number of visitors counted at all facilities in the city center to 1, which is equal to the product of the net number of incoming visitors and the average number of all shops visitors visited.
- 6.
To avoid the explanation to become complicated, we did not go into details of the consistent estimation method we employed here. Actually, here we employed the modified consistent estimation method which ignores the order of sites visitors visited along their shop-around. This modified method is only concerned with the distribution of total number of visitors over all commercial facilities so that the density of the total number of visitors counted at all sites is set to 1.
References
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Saito, S., Yamashiro, K., Iwami, M. (2018). How Did the Effects of the Festival Held on Main Street Spread Over Other Districts Within a City Center?. In: Saito, S., Yamashiro, K. (eds) Advances in Kaiyu Studies. New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives, vol 19. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1739-2_15
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