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Notes
- 1.
See “Cement industry: brakes needed for industrial expansion”, People’s Daily, May 13, 2013. Under the impact of Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, cement market was slump for some time, and some people call this overcapacity.
- 2.
Yang Ming, “Industrial restructuring will not slow down – in-depth research report of cement industry”, Financial Management and Research, Issue 2, 2005.
- 3.
Song Binbin, “Overcapacity and market indigestion: cement industry in recession. China Industry News, October 20, 2005.
- 4.
Xia Xuyang, “Empirical study of China’s cement industry restructuring”, Zhejiang University, 2005.
- 5.
Central Government, “Shandong: taking forceful measures and accelerating the establishment of a conservation-minded society”, website of Central Government, 2005.
- 6.
Xin Xin, “Overcapacity has accelerated the reshuffling of Taiwanese cement plants in Fujian”, China Mining News, April 28, 2005.
- 7.
China Cement Association, China Cement Almanac 2012–2013, Beijing: China Architecture and Building Press, 2014.
- 8.
China Monthly Economic Indicators, Issue 4, 2015, p.13.
- 9.
For state-owned cement plants, with government and bank support, they are insensitive to profit and do not make adjustment even there are losses. In this case, overcapacity will last long; but they will be squeezed out of the market in the end.
- 10.
China Statistical Abstract 2014, p.116.
- 11.
China Statistical Abstract 2015, p.172.
- 12.
See “Cement industry: brakes needed for industrial expansion”, People’s Daily, May 13, 2013.
- 13.
CIA database, 2015.
- 14.
Zheng Bingwen, “Urbanization in Latin America: catch-up and excess”, People’s Daily, January 20, 2013.
- 15.
International Labor Organization, Global Employment Trends 2012.
- 16.
In 2009, 38.10 million new jobs were created globally, within which a big share belonged to China (11.80 million). In comparison, the amount of new jobs in India was only 500,000. Other developing countries (including Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia) also suffered limited employment opportunities. The competition for shares in the global market is increasingly fierce.
- 17.
For quantitative analysis on rural surplus labor, please refer to Institute of National Accounts (Beijing Normal University), National Accounts Report 2013.
- 18.
The statistics here are different from the 13 million newly employed people in the urban area released by NDRC. Here, the number includes new employment in both urban and rural areas, and the number of people employed by 3rd industry is not small.
- 19.
The forecast of urban population is based on “one-child” policy and made by research team of Prof. Zeng Yi.
- 20.
Li Xin and Ding Ning made big contribution to the regression analysis here.
- 21.
Housing data are from REICO Studio, “Annual Report of Property Market in China 2008–2009”, p.115.
- 22.
The number of migrant workers exceeds 250 million, and 13% of them are home buyers. See “When could migrant workers enjoy the benefit of security housing”, People’s Daily, November 23, 2012.
- 23.
REICO Studio, China Property Market Report 2009, p.121.
- 24.
See China Economic Survey, Issue 3, 2011, p.21.
- 25.
Chow G. C. and K. Li, 2002, China’s Economic Growth: 1952–2010. Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol.51 (1): 247–256.
- 26.
Wang Xiaolu, Gang Fan and Peng Liu, 2007, Pattern and Sustainability of China towards 2020, CERDI Working Paper
- 27.
Holz C. A., 2006, China’s Economic Growth 1978–2025: What We Know Today and China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow, SSRN Research Paper.
- 28.
Perkins, D. H. and E. Rawski, 2008, China’s Great Economic Transformation, Cambridge University Press
- 29.
Here it is the average living space of home-owning households in Japan; households that rent houses are not considered.
- 30.
Wei Houkai, Market Competition, Economic Performance, and Industrial Concentration, Beijing: Economy and Management Publishing House, 2003.
- 31.
- 32.
In January 2015, housing prices in tier 1 cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou rebounded again. Housing price in Shenzhen rose for 6 months in a row with the highest growth. In February 2015, housing price in downtown of Shenzhen was 27,942 yuan/m2, up 21.9% year-on-year; however, sales volume dropped to only 1985 units, down 22.8% year-on-year. The data are from Caijing.com.cn
- 33.
People’s Daily, March 14, 2015.
- 34.
Xu Dianqing, The Housing Supply and Demand in China, Beijing: China Machine Press, 2014.
- 35.
Construction and installation costs per m2 (2000 yuan) include 10% of profits, which is attractive to developers and construction enterprises. After introducing the planning, government could entrust low-rent housing projects to the market through open bidding.
- 36.
According to the survey done by Institute of National Accounts, Beijing Normal University on monthly rent of small apartment (smaller than 40 m2) in all Districts of Beijing, in May 2015, the average monthly rent was 3031 yuan, the maximum 8900 yuan, and the minimum 350 yuan, leaving the standard deviation at 1120 yuan. The rent was higher in districts nearer to the city center. For example, it was 4091 yuan in Chongwen District, 3832 in Xicheng District, and 3464 yuan in Haidian District. The rate was lower in suburban Districts: 1000 yuan in Huairou District, 1400 yuan in Pinggu District, and 1773 yuan in Tongzhou District. Average monthly rent was 2598 yuan in Shanghai, 1848 yuan in Guangzhou, and 2577 yuan in Shenzhen.
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Xu, D., Liu, Y. (2018). Is There Overcapacity in Cement Industry?. In: Understanding China's Overcapacity. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0881-9_3
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