Abstract
The paper applies Looking Forward Approach to analyze the world oil market with the framework of a differential game model of quantity competition oligopoly. Namely Looking Forward Approach is used to take into account dynamically updating information. Under the information we understand the forecast of the oil demand dynamics. We focus on the period from December 2015 to November 2016 and suppose that during this time interval countries did not cooperate officially on the amounts of oil to be produced. Therefore, their behavior can be modeled using the non-cooperative game model. As a solution concept for this conflict-controlled process we use feedback Nash equilibrium. In order to define the parameters of model open source data is used, results of numerical simulations and comparison with the historical data are presented.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Basar, T., Olsder, G.J.: Dynamic Noncooperative Game Theory. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia (1999)
Basar, T., Pierre, B.: H∞-optimal Control and Related Minimax Design Problems. Birkhauser, Basel (1995)
Berger, K., Hoel, M., Holden, S., Olsen, O.: The oil market as an oligopoly. Discussion paper. Centr. Bureau Stat. 32, 1–19 (1988)
Cellini, R., Lambertini, L.: A differential oligopoly game with differentiated goods and sticky prices. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 176, 1131–1144 (2007)
Dona, J., Goodwin, G., Seron, M.: Constrained Control and Estimation: An Optimisation Approach. Springer, New York (2005)
Engwerda, J.: LQ Dynamic Optimization and Differential Games. Chichester, Wiley (2005)
Gromova, E., Petrosian, O.: Control of informational horizon for cooperative differential game of pollution control. In: 2016 International Conference Stability and Oscillations of Nonlinear Control Systems (Pyatnitskiy’s Conference), pp. 1–4 (2016)
Han, S., Kwon, W.: Receding Horizon Control: Model Predictive Control for State Models. Springer, New York (2005)
Isaacs, R.: Differential Games. Wiley, New York (1965)
Krasner, S.D.: The great oil sheikdown. Foreign Policy 13, 123–138 (1973)
Ludkovski, M., Sircar, R.: Game theoretic models for energy production. commodities, energy and environmental finance. Fields Inst. Commun. 74, 317–333 (2015)
Moran, T.H.: Managing an oligopoly of would-be sovereigns: the dynamics of joint control and self-control in the international oil industry past, present, and future. Int. Organ. 41(4), 575–607 (1987)
Nash, J.F. Jr.: Equilibrium points in n-person games. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 36(1), 48–49 (1950)
Nash, J.F. Jr.: Non-cooperative games. Ann. Math. 54(2), 286–295 (1951)
Petrosian, O.: Looking forward approach in cooperative differential games. Int. Game Theory Rev. 18(2), 1–14 (2016)
Petrosian, O.: Looking forward approach in cooperative differential games with infinite-horizon. Vestnik Leningrad State Univ. 4, 18–30 (2016)
Petrosian, O., Barabanov, A.: Looking forward approach in cooperative differential games with uncertain-stochastic dynamics. J. Optim. Theory Appl. 172(1), 328–347 (2017)
Petrosian, O., Nastych, M., Volf, D.: Differential game of oil market with moving informational horizon and nontransferable utility. In: Constructive Nonsmooth Analysis and Related Topics (dedicated to the memory of V.F. Demyanov) (CNSA), 2017, pp. 1–4. Springer, New York (2017)
Rawlings, J., Mayne, D.: Model Predictive Control: Theory and Design. Nob Hill Publishing, Madison (2009)
Salant, S.: Exhaustible resources and industrial structure: a Nash-Cournot approach to the world oil market. J. Polit. Econ. 84, 1079–1094 (1976)
Wang, L.: Model Predictive Control System Design and Implementation Using MATLAB. Springer, New York (2005)
Yeung, D., Petrosian, O.: Cooperative stochastic differential games with information adaptation. In: International Conference on Communication and Electronic Information Engineering (CEIE 2016) (2017)
Yeung, D., Petrosian, O.: Infinite horizon dynamic games: a new approach via information updating. Int. Game Theory Rev. 20(1), 1–23 (2017)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Petrosian, O., Nastych, M., Volf, D. (2018). Non-cooperative Differential Game Model of Oil Market with Looking Forward Approach. In: Petrosyan, L., Mazalov, V., Zenkevich, N. (eds) Frontiers of Dynamic Games. Static & Dynamic Game Theory: Foundations & Applications. Birkhäuser, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92988-0_11
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92988-0_11
Published:
Publisher Name: Birkhäuser, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-92987-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-92988-0
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)