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The Post World War II Era: Size and Composition

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Part of the book series: Applied Demography Series ((ADS,volume 10))

Abstract

World War II had many direct and indirect effects on America. Directly, it lead to an increased participation of women in the labor force, the emergence and sustainability of the Military-Industrial Complex, and helped bring America out of the Great Depression. Indirectly, it contributed to much social change: greater college attendance as GIs sought college attendance after the War, and thus created a market for more colleges and universities. Indeed, the three-pronged college system in California (the University of California, the California State System, and the Junior College system), was arguably, the residual effects of the War (see Jencks and Reisman 1968); the Civil Rights Movement was spurred by returning GIs who faced discrimination back in the USA after risking their lives for their country. By all accounts, the post WW II period was characterized by and impressive array of economic and social changes. All this would change right around 1970 when the US experienced a severe economic down turn.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    For example, Michael Harrington’s book (1962), The Other America: Poverty in the United States.

  2. 2.

    The Lemon Grove Incident in 1930/1931 was the first successful US school desegregation case. Lemon Grove was a landmark decision because it started the desegregation cases in the USA and involved Mexican American children. See Roberto Alvarez. 1986. The Lemon Grove Incident: The Nation’s First Successful Desegregation Court Case. The Journal of San Diego History, Spring, 32, 2.

  3. 3.

    In a little bit of education history, Thurgood Marshall, representing the NAACP, filed an Amicus brief on behalf of Mendez in the Mendez v. Westminster (1947). The experience gained from this case helped Marshall in his arguments in the landmark Brown v. the Board of Education suit (1954).

  4. 4.

    The Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) is an economic indicator that measures real output for all facilities located in the United States manufacturing, mining, and electric, and gas utilities (excluding those in U.S. territories). Since 1997, the Industrial Production Index has been determined from 312 individual series based on the 2007 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: market groups and industry groups. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System defines market groups as products (aggregates of final products) and materials (inputs used in the manufacture of products). Consumer goods and business equipment can be examples of market groups. “Industry groups are defined as three digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries such as durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities.”

    The index is compiled on a monthly basis to bring attention to short-term changes in industrial production. It measures movements in production output and highlights structural developments in the economy. Growth in the production index from month to month is an indicator of growth in the industry.

    For more information regarding the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization index, see the explanatory notes issued by the Board of Governors: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/IpNotes.htm).

  5. 5.

    In an interesting paper, Piketty and Saez (2014) note that there are important differences in wealth and income between the US and the UK. Keep in mind that the UK is an older society and before industrialization, wealth was concentrated among the aristocracy and the vast amount of land and property in their hands. Wealth in terms of income, that is, from services provided, is a new concept and characterizes the US since it has lacked, so to speak, an aristocracy.

  6. 6.

    R.A. Fisher argued that in most species the 1:1 Ratio was common (1930). A ratio not 1:1 is considered “non-Fisherian” because it violates Fisher’s model. The model’s assumptions are clearly stated by Hamilton (1967). Hamilton lays out Fishers argument in six (6) statements.

    1. 1.

      Say fewer males are born than females in a population.

    2. 2.

      Thus, newborn males have a better chance of mating than newborn females and will have more children than females.

    3. 3.

      Parents predisposed to have male children will have more grandchildren.

    4. 4.

      Thus, male genes begin to proliferate and male babies become more common until the ratio approaches 1:1.

    5. 5.

      As the sex ratio approaches 1:1, the male advantage dies away.

    6. 6.

      The same logic applies if we substitute females for males.

    For an exceedingly interesting narrative about the history of an idea, the sex ratio, see Hamilton’s Letter to the Editor (2000). In this letter there appears a short translation of Dusing’s 1884 paper. One of the earliest mathematical treatments of a genetic concept. Hamilton, at the end, also gives a short history of how Dusing’s contribution was lost.

  7. 7.

    The US dropout rate has a long history and scholars have taken different approaches and used different age groups, depending on their specific purpose. In terms of measurement, there appears to be at least three major measurement procedures: the age cohort approach, the grade approach, and the cohort approach. Each has its own pluses and minuses.

    The age cohort approach focuses on a specific age cohort, say age 16 to 24, and computes dropout rates for this cohort. This seems to be the most frequently used approach, and its main problem is that a segment of this cohort returns to school, in a GED or adult program, and earns a high school diploma at a later age.

    A grade approach is a relatively new approach introduced, as far as I can tell, by Balfanz and colleagues at Johns Hopkins University. It begins by looking at the 9th grade population at time t, and then at the population who graduate four years later. The dropout rate is then ((P9-P12)/P9)*100. P9 is the 9th grade population at time t, and P12 the population who graduates at time t+4. There are several problems with the procedure, though I think it is a valuable estimate if used with other measurement strategies. First, some students are retained and not dropouts. Second, it assumes that schools and school districts keep effective records on the comings and goings of students, which is an erroneous assumption.

    Finally, the cohort approach follows a well-defined cohort, say 7th graders, over time to see remains through graduation and who drops out. The problems are 1) it is not generalizable to other groups/cohorts, or samples. Results are specific to the chosen cohort. 2) There is some bias in the data as students are lost and it is not clear if they have dropped out or not. If researchers or others view such a strategy as a case study, findings are interesting and may lead to some substantial understanding of why students dropout.

  8. 8.

    Note that Pong and Hao (2007) find that schools effects are particularly important for immigrant students and less so for US born students.

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Verdugo, R.R. (2018). The Post World War II Era: Size and Composition. In: American Education and the Demography of the US Student Population, 1880 – 2014. Applied Demography Series, vol 10. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-89423-2_5

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