Abstract
Looking at patterns of employment across developing countries (DCs), Mahmood finds that the quantum of employment growth is not the best estimator of labour market improvement or distress. This is because lack of social protection compels the poor to work, which means that employment growth is determined primarily by labour force growth—that is, by supply-side demographics rather than by demand-side economics. He argues that job quality is a better estimator of labour market improvement or distress. Job quality, measured in terms of the working poor, vulnerability, and labour productivity, climbs consistently up the per capita income ladder across DCs. This yields a second empirical regularity—that reductions in vulnerability improve job quality, thereby raising productivity and allowing DCs to climb up the income ladder.
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- 1.
The mathematical expression is more complex because it is not additive but multiplicative.
- 2.
Informality is strictly defined according to the International Conference of Labour Statisticians as employment without legal protection, or social protection, and comprising employment both in the informal sector and the formal sector.
- 3.
But allowing for the possibility of formality also contributing to the working poor—albeit a smaller part compared to informality.
- 4.
Strictly, industry comprises manufacturing plus extractives, plus construction, plus utilities, but the latter two sectors are very small.
- 5.
It must be noted that between 1990 and 2012, manufacturing employment went down by more than 1 percentage point of the labour force in a quarter of LDCs and in half of LMICs and EEs for which data was available (ILO database).
References
ILO (International Labour Organization). 2011. Growth, Productive Employment and Decent Work in the Least Developed Countries. Geneva: ILO.
———. 2012. Global Employment Trends for Women. Geneva: ILO.
Lewis, W. Arthur. 1954. Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School 22 (2): 139–191.
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Mahmood, M. (2018). A Regularity in Employment Patterns in Developing Countries: Jobs and Good Jobs. In: The Three Regularities in Development. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76959-2_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76959-2_3
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