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Climates of Opinion: La Niña and Permanent Change

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La Niña and the Making of Climate Optimism
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Abstract

This chapter looks at the retention of climate optimism in the face of growing certainty about climate change. It examines how the memory of rain and lived experience of climate cycles can operate to challenge more abstract ideas about climate presented by climate scientists and in the media. It also relates how hope can be a powerful influence during prolonged dry periods. Further it demonstrates that climate optimism is part of the cultural construction of climate that now includes climate change. It shows that still in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, the experience of weather events, such as drought-breaking La Niñas, can dampen fears about an adverse climate, reinforce a belief in natural cycles as responsible for climate change and impact the implementation of climate change mitigation policy.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Mike Hulme, Why We Disagree about Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2013, 63–66.

  2. 2.

    Annabel Crabb, “Australia’s Recent Climate Change Policy: A Brief History of Seven Killings”, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, August 23, 2018.

  3. 3.

    Marie Ekström, Chris Gerbing, Michael Grose, Jonas Bhend, Leanne Webb, and James Risbey, eds, “Climate Change in Australia Information for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Technical Report”, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 2015, http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/publications-library/technical-report/.

  4. 4.

    Justin Field, “I’m Quitting the Divided Greens: The Planet Needs Consensus Politics”, The Sydney Morning Herald, April 5, 2019.

  5. 5.

    Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, Canberra, CSIRO Publishing, 2014, 105.

  6. 6.

    Journalist and oral historian, Deb Anderson, compiled an extensive oral history collection in rural Australia for Museum Victoria from 2004 to 2007. These were a series of annual recordings with 22 members of wheat-belt communities dotted across the semi-arid Victorian Mallee, through the peak of the Millennium Drought. Anderson comments that themes emerged early in the recordings: “of drought anchored in the celebratory remembrance of past survival; of uncertainty as ongoing change in the Australian countryside posed a threat to Mallee livelihoods; and of putative adaptation as local communities sought solace in a historicised capacity to cope with trying social-environmental conditions.” Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, Introduction. I have used these interviews to assess rural perceptions of climate change at this time in the Mallee, in particular, changing attitudes towards climate change as farmers lived through the Millennium Drought (late 1996 to mid-2010) but also remembered past droughts and made comparisons.

  7. 7.

    Pam Elliott interviewed by Deb Anderson, quote taken from Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, Canberra, CSIRO Publishing, 2014, 102.

  8. 8.

    Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2015, “Recent Rainfall, Drought and Southern Australia’s Long-Term Rainfall Decline”, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a010-southern-rainfall-decline.shtml.

  9. 9.

    David Donnelly, Rob Mercer, Jenny Dickson, and Eric Wu, Australia’s Farming Future Final Market Research Report: Understanding Behaviours, Attitudes and Preferences Relating to Climate Change, Canberra, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, 2009, http://www.agriculture.gov.au/SiteCollectionDocuments/climatechange/australias-farming-future/aus-farming-future-mrr.pdf. Daniela Stehlik, Ian Gray, and Geoffrey Lawrence, Drought in the 1990s: Australian Farm Families’ Experiences, Rockhampton, Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, 1999.

  10. 10.

    Des Ryan and Andrew Ryan interviewed by Deb Anderson, quotes taken from Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, 147–148.

  11. 11.

    Mick Pole interviewed by Deb Anderson, quote taken from Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, 155.

  12. 12.

    Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, Canberra, 157–158.

  13. 13.

    Brad Jessup and Kim Rubenstein, eds, Environmental Discourses in Public and International Law, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2012, 298–299.

  14. 14.

    Jim Maynard interviewed by Deb Anderson, quote taken from Deb Anderson, 2014, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, 181.

  15. 15.

    David Donnelly et al., Australia’s Farming Future. The DAFF research was designed to enable the Federal Government to devise a strategy to encourage primary producers to adapt to the effects of climate change and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

  16. 16.

    David Donnelly et al., Australia’s Farming Future.

  17. 17.

    Ben Jones interviewed by Deb Anderson, quote taken from Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, 186.

  18. 18.

    Jeremy Thompson, “Carbon tax passes Senate”, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, November 8, 2011, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-08/carbon-tax-passes-senate/3652438.

  19. 19.

    Emma Griffiths, “Carbon Tax Scrapped: PM Tony Abbott Sees Key Election Promise Fulfilled After Senate Votes for Repeal”, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, July 18, 2014, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-17/carbon-tax-repealed-by-senate/5604246.

  20. 20.

    Z. Leviston and I.A. Walker, Baseline Survey of Australian Attitudes to Climate Change: Preliminary Report, National Research Flagships Climate Adaptation, Perth, CSIRO, 2011. Ecosystem Sciences. P. Ashworth, Results of Climate Change Survey 2010, Canberra, CSIRO, 2010.

  21. 21.

    Climate Institute, Climate of the Nation 2016: Australian Attitudes on Climate Change, Executive Summary, Sydney, Climate Institute, 2016, http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/COTN_2016_Executive_Summary.pdf.

  22. 22.

    Z. Leviston, A. Leitch, M. Greenhill, R. Leonard, and I. Walker, Australians’ Views of Climate Change, Canberra, CSIRO Report, 2011, http://www.garnautreview.org.au/update-2011/commissioned-work/australians-view-of-climate-change.pdf.

  23. 23.

    Anita Pugliese and Linda Lyons, 2010, Australians Views Shift on Climate Change, http://www.gallup.com/poll/141782/australians-views-shift-climate-change.aspx.

  24. 24.

    David Donnelly et al., Australia’s Farming Future.

  25. 25.

    David Donnelly et al., Australia’s Farming Future.

  26. 26.

    David Donnelly et al., Australia’s Farming Future.

  27. 27.

    Climate of the Nation, Regional Differences in Views on Climate Change, Sydney, The Climate Institute, 2016, http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/CoN_2016_Regional_Factsheet.pdf.

  28. 28.

    Climate of the Nation—National Report, The Climate Institute, 2017, http://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/Galaxy%20Research%20Climate%20of%20the%20nation%20Quantitative%20April%202017.pdf.

  29. 29.

    L. C. Hamilton, J. Hartter, M. Lemcke-Stampone, D. W. Moore, and T. G. Safford, “Tracking Public Beliefs about Anthropogenic Climate Change”, PLoS One, 10, no. 9, 2015, e0138208. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0138208.

  30. 30.

    Z. Leviston, M. Greenhill, and I. Walker, Australian Attitudes to Climate Change and Adaptation: 2010–2014, Canberra, CSIRO, 2015.

  31. 31.

    Lesley Hughes, Lauren Rickards, Will Steffen, Petra Stock, and Martin Rice, On the Frontline: Climate Change and Rural Communities, Sydney, Climate Council of Australia, 2015, https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/564abfd96ebac5cbc6cf45de2f17e12d.pdf.

  32. 32.

    Z. Leviston, M. Greenhill, and I. Walker, “Australian Attitudes to Climate Change and Adaptation: 2010–2014”.

  33. 33.

    Z. Leviston, M. Greenhill, and I. Walker, “Australian Attitudes to Climate Change and Adaptation: 2010–2014”.

  34. 34.

    Z. Leviston, M. Greenhill, and I. Walker, “Australian Attitudes to Climate Change and Adaptation: 2010–2014”.

  35. 35.

    Frank Jotzo, “Australia’s 2030 Climate Target Puts Us in the Race but at the Back”, The Conversation, August 12, 2015, https://theconversation.com/australias-2030-climate-target-puts-us-in-the-race-but-at-the-back-45931.

  36. 36.

    Clive Hamilton, “Australia’s Leader Sets his Sights Low in Opening Conference Gambit”, The Conversation, December 1, 2015, https://theconversation.com/australias-leader-sets-his-sights-low-in-opening-conference-gambit-51542. Graham Readfearn, “Is New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull Already a Climate Change Turncoat?”, The Guardian, September 18, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2015/sep/18/is-new-australian-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-already-a-climate-change-turncoat. The Climate Institute, “Climate of the Nation 2015: Australian Attitudes on Climate Change”, www.climateinstitute.org.au.

  37. 37.

    Annabel Crabb, “Australia’s Recent Climate Change Policy: A Brief History of Seven Killings”, op cit.

  38. 38.

    J.T. Fasullo, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, and S. Stevenson, “ENSO’s Changing Influence on Temperature, Precipitation, and Wildfire in a Warming Climate”, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2018, 9216–9225, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079022.

  39. 39.

    Angeline D. Pendergrass and Dennis Hartmann, “Changes in the Distribution Rain Frequency and Intensity in Response to Global Warming”, Journal of Climate, November 2014, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00183.1.

  40. 40.

    Australian Bureau of Meteorology, “La Niña—Detailed Australian Analysis”, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/.

  41. 41.

    Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2012, “Annual Climate Summary—2011”, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/annual_sum/2011/AnClimSum2011_LR1.0.pdf.

  42. 42.

    Gerald A. Meehl, Aixue Hu, and Haiyan Teng, “Initialized Decadal Prediction for Transition to Positive Phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,” Nature Communications, 7, June 2, 2016, 11718. Bo Dong and Aiguo Dai, “The Influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Temperature and Precipitation Over the Globe”, Climate Dynamics, January 28, 2015, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers/DongDai-CD2015-IPO.pdf.

  43. 43.

    Sinclair Davidson, “Goodbye to the All Pain, No Gain Carbon Tax”, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, July 17, 2014, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-17/davidson-goodbye-to-the-all-pain,-no-gain-carbon-tax/5597614.

  44. 44.

    Julia Gillard, “Julia Gillard Writes on Power, Purpose and Labor’s Future”, The Guardian, September 14, 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/13/julia-gillard-labor-purpose-future.

  45. 45.

    See, for example, Rosemary Lyster, “Renewable Energy Target Review Confirms Influence of Coal and Climate Sceptics”, The Conversation, September 2, 2014, https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-target-review-confirms-influence-of-coal-and-climate-sceptics-31094.

  46. 46.

    Eliza Borrello, “Rural Liberals put Climate Scepticism on Agenda at Federal Council Meeting in Melbourne”, ABC News, June 23, 2015, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-23/rural-liberals-put-climate-scepticism-on-agenda-at-party-summit/6568082.

  47. 47.

    David Donnelly et al., Australia’s Farming Future.

  48. 48.

    David Donnelly et al., Australia’s Farming Future.

  49. 49.

    Z. Leviston, M. Greenhill, and I. Walker, “Australian Attitudes to Climate Change and Adaptation: 2010–2014”.

  50. 50.

    Greg Brown interviewed by Deb Anderson, as quoted in Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, 100–101.

  51. 51.

    Greg Brown interviewed by Deb Anderson, as quoted in Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, 100.

  52. 52.

    Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, 101.

  53. 53.

    Robert McClelland interviewed by Deb Anderson, as quoted in Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, 93.

  54. 54.

    Australian Bureau of Meteorology, “La Niña—Detailed Australian Analysis”, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/. Rainfall figures Marston Downs at nearby Sea Lake show 693.3 mm for 1973, 513.2 mm for 1974, and 381.4 mm for 1975. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, “Daily Rainfall—Sea Lake (Marston Downs)”, http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=136&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=1975&p_c=-1187174812&p_stn_num=077040.

  55. 55.

    Bev Cook interviewed by Deb Anderson, as quoted in Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, 88. Robert McClelland interviewed by Deb Anderson, as quoted in Deb Anderson, Endurance: Australian Stories of Drought, 89.

  56. 56.

    In the Gulf Country and North West Queensland, previously drought-affected regions received record rainfall of 600 mm over a seven-day period from late January into early February. This caused widespread flooding as large areas received four times the February average. The Bureau of Meteorology noted that global warming was increasing the likelihood of heavy rainfall events and that rainfall prediction models were being recalibrated to take this into account. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, “Special Climate Statement 69—an extended period of heavy rainfall in tropical Queensland”, March 8, 2019, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs69.pdf.

  57. 57.

    James Nason, “NQ Floods: Channel Country Flows a Rare Silver Lining”, Beef Central, February 13, 2019, https://www.beefcentral.com/news/nq-floods-channel-country-flows-a-rare-silver-lining/.

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Miller, J. (2019). Climates of Opinion: La Niña and Permanent Change. In: La Niña and the Making of Climate Optimism. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76141-1_9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76141-1_9

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