Canada-US Relations Under President Trump: Stop Reading the Tweets and Look to the Future

Abstract

Canada-US relations will become far more complex over the next decades. Large-scale demographic and social change, fundamental transformations in the energy and climate systems, and the fourth industrial revolution will reshape Canada, the United States, and bilateral relations. While the unpredictability and volatility of the Trump White House has understandably turned attentions to the short term, we argue that those engaged in and managing bilateral relations should position their short-term tactics within a much longer-term view. We propose three key strategies to manage the Canada-US relationship: the importance of long-term foresight and scenarios analysis, the need to challenge conventional wisdom and assumptions about the drivers and underpinnings of bilateral relations, and the necessity to develop “deep collaboration” that moves well beyond the capitals of both countries. Critical issues confront and will confront both nations, and developing the best solutions will require close collaboration.