Iran’s Strategic Culture: Implications for Nuclear Policy

Abstract

Nima Gerami strikes a note of caution in his chapter concerning the prospects for preserving the 2015 nuclear agreement—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—between Iran and the P5+1. Explaining the “great civilization” lens through which Iran sees itself as a peer with global superpowers, Gerami discusses aspects of the Iranian national narrative which “fuel its sense of entitlement to advanced nuclear fuel cycle technologies.” Gerami argues that, even if the JCPOA remains intact, some of the deal’s restrictions expire in 10 to 15 years and thus “the question of Iran's nuclear intent will grow increasingly important over the next decade.” Affirming the salience of cultural context in assessing nuclear intent, Gerami emphasizes the primacy of Iranian cultural factors in decisionmaking. He explores these factors through the lens of the Cultural Topography Analytic Framework, offering insights concerning leverage points the United States might apply in its engagements with Iran.

The author is indebted to Rameez Abbas, Gawdat Bahgat, Michael Connell, Michael Eisenstadt, Thomas Lynch, and the book editors for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this chapter. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Defense Department, or the US government.