Skip to main content

Financial Instability and Speculative Bubbles: Behavioural Insights and Policy Implications

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Alternative Approaches in Macroeconomics

Abstract

Michelle Baddeley in this chapter entitled, ‘Financial Instability and Speculative Bubbles: Behavioural Insights and Policy Implications’, draws on themes from Baddeley and McCombie’s (An historical perspective on speculative bubbles and financial crises: Tulipmania and the South Sea bubble. In: Arestis P, Baddeley M, McCombie JSL (eds) What global economic crisis? Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2001) exploration of speculative bubbles, which applied different models of speculation to analysing famous historical speculative episodes, specifically Tulipmania and the South Sea Bubble. This chapter re-assesses these insights in the light of all that has happened during the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and subsequent global financial crises of 2007/2008. It also extends the analysis to include new insights from behavioural finance about the nature and causes of speculative bubbles, blending insights from behavioural finance and post-Keynesian economics. Speculative bubbles throughout history have a number of common, predictable features so why have we not learnt more from these past experiences? In answering these questions, this chapter concludes with an analysis of policy implications—including fiscal and monetary measures that could be implemented to minimise the destabilising real-side impacts from speculative bubbles and the financial shocks and crises which often follow.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 89.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 119.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    Although Topol does allow that if mimetic contagion is powerful enough, the world may no longer be ergodic.

References

  • Avery, C., & Zemsky, P. (1998). Multidimensional uncertainty and herd behavior in financial markets. American Economic Review, 88(4), 724–748.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baddeley, M. (2014). Rethinking microfoundations of macroeconomics: Insights from behavioural economics. European Journal of Economics & Economic Policies: Intervention, 11(1), 99–112.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baddeley, M. (2016). Behavioural macroeconomics: Time, optimism and animal spirits. In R. Frantz & S. Mousavi (Eds.), Routledge handbook of behavioural economics – Routledge international handbooks. New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baddeley, M. (2017). Keynes’s psychology & behavioural macroeconomics: Theory and policy. Economic and Labour Relations Review, 28(2), 177–196.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baddeley, M., & McCombie, J. S. L. (2001/2004). An historical perspective on speculative bubbles and financial crises: Tulipmania and the South sea bubble. In P. Arestis, M. Baddeley, & J. S. L. McCombie (Eds.), What global economic crisis? Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baddeley, M, Christopoulos, G., Pillas, D., Schultz, W., & Tobler, P. (2007). Herding and social pressure in trading tasks: A behavioural analysis (Cambridge working papers in economics, no. 730). Cambridge: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baddeley, M., Burke, C., Tobler, P., & Schultz, W. (2010). Impacts of personality on herding in financial decision-making (Cambridge working papers in economics, no. 1006). Cambridge: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Banerjee, A. (1992). A simple model of herd behavior. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(3), 797–817.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benartzi, S., & Thaler, R. (1995). Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 73–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D., & Welch, I. (1992). A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades. Journal of Political Economy, 100(5), 992–1026.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D., & Welch, I. (1998). Learning from the behavior of others: Conformity, fads, and informational cascades. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12(3), 151–170.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blanchard, O. J., & Watson, M. W. (1982). Bubbles, rational expectations and financial markets. In P. Wachtel (Ed.), Crises in the economic and financial structure. DC Heath: Lexington.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burke, C., Baddeley, M., Tobler, P., & Schultz, W. (2010). Striatal BOLD response reflects the impact of herd information on financial decisions. Frontiers – Human Neuroscience, 4, article 48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chamley, C. P. (2003). Rational herds: Economic models of social learning. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Davidson, P. (1996). Reality and economic theory. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 18(4), 479–508.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Devenow, A., & Welch, I. (1996). Rational herding in financial economics. European Economic Review, 40, 603–615.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drehmann, M., Oechssler, J., & Roider, A. (2005). Herding and contrarian behavior in financial markets: An internet experiment. American Economic Review, 95(5), 1403–1426.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eichengreen, B., Tobin, J., & Wyplosz, C. (1995). Two cases for sand in the wheels of international finance. The Economic Journal, 105, 162–172.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flood, R. P., & Garber, R. J. (1980). Speculative bubbles, speculative attacks and policy switching. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frederick, S., Loewenstein, G., & O’Donoghue, T. (2002). Time discounting: A critical review. Journal of Economic Literature, 40(2), 351–401.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garber, P. M. (1989). Tulipmania. Journal of Political Economy, 97(3), 535–560.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garber, P. M. (1990). Famous first bubbles. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(2), 35–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. London: Allen Lane/Penguin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M. (1921). A treatise on probability. London: Macmillan/Royal Economic Society.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. London: Macmillan/Royal Economic Society.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209–223.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kindleberger, C. P. (1978). Manias, panics and crashes. New York: Wiley.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Laibson, D. (1997). Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112, 443–478.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le Bon, G. (1895). The crowd: A study of the popular mind. Lexington: Maestro Reprints.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lo, A. W., Dmitry, V., Repin, B. N., & Steenbarger, B. N. (2005). Fear and greed in financial markets: A clinical study of day traders. American Economic Review, 95(2), 352–359.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mackay, C. (1841). Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds Lexington KY: Maestro Reprints.

    Google Scholar 

  • Minsky, H. P. (1982). Inflation, recession and economic policy. Brighton: Wheatsheaf.

    Google Scholar 

  • Minsky, H. P. (1992). The financial instability hypothesis (Levy Institute working paper WP74). New York: Levy Institute of Bard College.

    Google Scholar 

  • Muth, J. F. (1961). Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica, 29(3), 315–335.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palley, T. I. (1993). Uncertainty, expectations and the future: If we don’t know the answers, what are the questions? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 16(1), 3–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharot, T. (2011). The optimism bias: Why we’re wired to look on the bright side. New York: Pantheon Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiller, R. J. (1981). Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent movements in dividends. American Economic Review, 71(3), 421–436.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiller, R. J. (1990). Speculative prices and popular models. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(2), 55–65.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shiller, R. J. (2000). Irrational exuberance. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shleifer, A., & Summers, L. H. (1990). The noise trade approach to finance. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(2), 19–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thaler, R. (2005). Advances in behavioural finance. New York/Princeton: Russell Sage Foundation/Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Topol, R. (1991). Bubbles and volatility of stock prices: Effect of mimetic contagion. Economic Journal, 101, 786–800.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 The Author(s)

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Baddeley, M. (2018). Financial Instability and Speculative Bubbles: Behavioural Insights and Policy Implications. In: Arestis, P. (eds) Alternative Approaches in Macroeconomics. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69676-8_9

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69676-8_9

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-69675-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-69676-8

  • eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics