Future Challenges for the EU: Five Scenarios from Collapse and Marginalisation to the Emergence of a Federal Empire

Abstract

In this chapter I gather together some, but not all, of the most important results of the previous chapters. In other words, it is worth reading each chapter in its own right, as the current chapter simply uses the other results to the degree that they contribute to its main focus, the chimera of the realistic future scenarios of the union. I first present the current situation of the union in a very concise section. This is followed by a presentation of five possible future scenarios, from marginalisation and collapse to a full-blown federal empire. These scenarios are then discussed in a section which explores some of the greatest challenges the union will face in the near future, such as Brexit, immigration, problems with economic co-ordination, defence and foreign policy, democratisation versus the interests of the united capitalists of Europe, and the articulation of political interest criticising the EU, often taking the form of populist movements. The closing section discusses the issue of whether the EU is an emerging empire, and if so, what kind of empire it is.