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Contemporary Sex Offender Risk Management, Volume II pp 33–62Cite as

Palgrave Macmillan

Assessment of Risk to Sexually Reoffend: What Do We Really Know?

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Part of the book series: Palgrave Studies in Risk, Crime and Society ((PSRCS))

Abstract

As recently as 30 years ago, assessments of sexual offender reoffense potential were offered by “experts” relying on clinical judgments fraught with subjectivity. In the wake of damning research showing that such ratings were often no better than chance in predicting outcome, mechanical processes were developed to increase objectivity, known as actuarial risk assessment instruments or ARAIs (e.g., Static-99, Risk Matrix-2000). In contemporary practice, ARAIs are used to anchor risk judgments; however, they continue to generate controversy, especially in the highly litigious realm of sexual offender civil commitment and other extraordinary measures of containment and restriction of offender liberties. Additionally, research is clear that use of ARAIs provides only moderate predictive accuracy and that other psychologically meaningful factors must also be considered. This chapter traces the history of sexual offender risk assessment techniques, ultimately focusing on contemporary approaches marrying ARAIs with structured approaches to appraising criminogenic need and instituting evidence-based case management practices. Successes achieved and suggestions for future research and practice are addressed.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    A meta-analysis is essentially a study of studies. Researchers pull together all the individual studies on a particular subject and then, to the extent that all studies are reasonably conducted and focus on similar issues, those studies form a much larger study with a more representative sample size. Meta-analyses are commonly used to establish the validity of certain procedures, such as risk assessment or treatment effectiveness.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada

    Robin J. Wilson

  2. Wilson Psychological Services LLC, Sarasota, FL, USA

    Robin J. Wilson

  3. Private Practice, Albany, NY, USA

    Jeffrey C. Sandler

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  1. Robin J. Wilson
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Community and Criminal Justice, De Montfort University, Leicester, United Kingdom

    Hazel Kemshall

  2. Dept of Criminology, University of the West of England, Bristol, United Kingdom

    Kieran McCartan

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Wilson, R.J., Sandler, J.C. (2017). Assessment of Risk to Sexually Reoffend: What Do We Really Know?. In: Kemshall, H., McCartan, K. (eds) Contemporary Sex Offender Risk Management, Volume II. Palgrave Studies in Risk, Crime and Society. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63573-6_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63573-6_2

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