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Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

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Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I

Part of the book series: Pageoph Topical Volumes ((PTV))

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Abstract

To perform probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for subduction zone earthquakes, it is necessary to start with a catalog of possible future events along with the annual probability of occurrence, or a probability distribution of such events that can be easily sampled. For near-field events, the distribution of slip on the fault can have a significant effect on the resulting tsunami. We present an approach to defining a probability distribution based on subdividing the fault geometry into many subfaults and prescribing a desired covariance matrix relating slip on one subfault to slip on any other subfault. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of this matrix are then used to define a Karhunen-Loève expansion for random slip patterns. This is similar to a spectral representation of random slip based on Fourier series but conforms to a general fault geometry. We show that only a few terms in this series are needed to represent the features of the slip distribution that are most important in tsunami generation, first with a simple one-dimensional example where slip varies only in the down-dip direction and then on a portion of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Randall J. LeVeque & Donsub Rim

  2. Forsvarets Forskningsinstitutt, Oslo, Norway

    Knut Waagan

  3. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Frank I. González

  4. Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA

    Guang Lin

Authors
  1. Randall J. LeVeque
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  2. Knut Waagan
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  3. Frank I. González
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  4. Donsub Rim
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  5. Guang Lin
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Randall J. LeVeque .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. U.S. Geological Survey MS 999, Middlefield Rd 345, 94025, Menlo Park, CA, USA

    Eric L Geist

  2. Georgia Inst of Technology Sch of Civil & Environmental Eng, Atlantic Dr 790, 30332, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Hermann M. Fritz

  3. Russian Academy of Sciences P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Nakhimovski Prospect 36, 117997, Moskva, Russia

    Alexander B. Rabinovich

  4. Hokkado University, N10W8, Kita-ku, 060-0810, Sapporo, Japan

    Yuichiro Tanioka

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LeVeque, R.J., Waagan, K., González, F.I., Rim, D., Lin, G. (2016). Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment. In: Geist, E.L., Fritz, H.M., Rabinovich, A.B., Tanioka, Y. (eds) Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I. Pageoph Topical Volumes. Birkhäuser, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-55480-8_2

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