Abstract
Labor market changes and resulting distributional effects in the United States have led to significant social, economic, and political turbulence over the past two decades. Wage and occupational polarization, static or declining wages, a 30% decline in manufacturing employment, and stark differences in regional outcomes provide the sense that some people and places are flourishing, but meanwhile others struggle. While trade, urbanization, and workplace automation undoubtedly yield many benefits, neither the benefits nor the potential costs are evenly distributed. In this study, we combine and extend several recent studies on offshorability risk and automation risk to examine the potential for job loss at the county level. Job loss risk is particularly high due to automation. Automation risk is geographically and socioeconomically concentrated, whereas risk due to offshoring is fairly evenly distributed. This uneven distribution of automation-related risk puts already vulnerable populations at greater risk, including those with lower levels of educational attainment and lower socioeconomic status. Additionally, the strong geographic correlation indicates that entire labor markets, particularly those in nonmetropolitan counties, are at risk for automation-related job losses in the future.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
See the descriptions of jobs at www.onetonline.org /.
- 2.
Maps for each major U.S. Census region are available at www.bsu.edu/cber.
- 3.
The ninth decile of offshorability occupational median earnings was slightly lower than eighth and tenth decile because the ninth decile mostly include “production, transportation and material moving” occupations and very few “management, professional and related” occupations.
References
Acemoglu, D., & Autor, D. (2010). Skills, tasks and technologies: implications for employment and earnings. In O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (Eds.), Handbook of labor economics (Vol. vol. 4, 1st ed., pp. 1043–1171). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Acemoglu, D., Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G. H., & Price, B. (2016). Import competition and the great US employment sag of the 2000s. Journal of Labor Economics, 34(S1), S141–S198. https://economics.mit.edu/files/9811
Amato, P. R., & Keith, B. (1991). Parental divorce the well-being of children: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 110(1), 26–46. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.110.1.26
Ananat, E. O., Gassman-Pines, A., & Gibson-Davis, C. M. (2011). The effects of local employment losses on children’s educational achievement. In G. J. Duncan & R. J. Murname (Eds.), Whither opportunity: Rising inequality, schools, and children’s life chances (pp. 299–313). New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Arntz, M., Gregory, T., & Zierahn, U. (2016). The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: a comparative analysis. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en. (Report No. 189). OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers.
Autor, D. H. (2014). Polanyi's paradox and the shape of employment growth (Report No. 20485). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w20485
Autor, D. H. (2015). Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3–30.
Autor, D. H., & Dorn, D. (2013). The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the U.S. labor market. The American Economic Review, 103(5), 1533–1597.
Autor, D. H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2016). The China shock: learning from labor-market adjustment to large changes in trade. Annual Review of Economics, 8, 205–240. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080315-015041
Autor, D. H, Dorn, D., Hanson, G. H., & Majlesi, K. (2016). Importing political polarization? The electoral consequences of rising trade exposure (Working Paper No. 22637). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w22637
Baicker, K., & Rehavi, M. M. (2004). Policy watch: Trade adjustment assistance. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 239–255.
Blinder, A. S. (2006). Offshoring: The next industrial revolution? Foreign Affairs, 85(2), 113.
Blinder, A. S. (2009). How many U.S. jobs might be offshorable? World Economics, 10(2), 41–78.
Blinder, A. S., & Krueger, A. B. (2013). Alternative measures of offshorability: A Survey approach. Journal of Labor Economics, 31(1), 97–128.
Bowles, J. (2014). The computerisation of European jobs. Brussels: Bruegel. http://bruegel.org/2014/07/the-computerisation-of-european-jobs/
Brand, J. E. (2006). The effects of job displacement on job quality: Findings from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 24(3), 274–298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2006.03.001
Brand, J. E. (2014). The far-reaching impact of job loss and unemployment. (Working Paper No. PWP-CCPR-2014-011). Los Angeles, CA: California Center for Population Research (CCPR) at UCLA.
Brand, J. E., & Burgard, S. A. (2008). Job displacement and social participation over the life course: Findings for a cohort of joiners. Social Forces, 87(1), 211–242.
Brand, J. E., & von Wachter, T. (2013). The economic and social consequences of job loss and unemployment [webinar]. Population Reference Bureau (PRB) Available from http://www.prb.org/multimedia/video/2013/job-loss-webinar.aspx.
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2014). The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Information Systems. (2017). GDP and Personal Income. https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/index_regional.cfm.
Burgard, S. A., Brand, J. E., & House, J. S. (2007). Toward a better estimation of the effect of job loss on health. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 48(4), 369–384. https://doi.org/10.1177/002214650704800403
Chetty, R., Hendren, N., & Katz, L. F. (2016). The effects of exposure to better neighborhoods on children: New evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment. The American Economic Review, 106(4), 855–902.
Chetty, R., Hendren, N., Kline, P., & Saez, E. (2014). Where is the land of opportunity? The geography of intergenerational mobility in the United States. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(4), 1553–1623.
David, H., & Duggan, M. G. (2006). The growth in the Social Security Disability rolls: A fiscal crisis unfolding. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(3), 71–96.
Duggan, M. G. (2003). The rise in the Disability rolls and the decline in unemployment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 157–206.
Economic Innovation Group (EIG). (2016, May). The new map of economic growth and recovery. Washington, DC. https://eig.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/recoverygrowthreport.pdf
Faber, H. S. (2005). What do we know about job loss in the United States? Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984–2004. Economic Perspectives, 29(2), 13–28.
Fisher, P. S., & Peters, A. H. (1998). Industrial incentives: competition among American States and Cities. Employment Research Newsletter, 5(2), 1,. 3-4. https://doi.org/10.17848/1075-8445.5(2)-1
Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114C, 254–280. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516302244
Frey, C. B., Osborne, M. A., & Holmes, C. (2016). Technology at work v2.0: The future is not what it used to be. Citi Global Perspectives & Solutions. https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/reports/Citi_GPS_Technology_Work_2.pdf
Gabe, T. M., & Kraybill, D. S. (2002). The effect of state economic development incentives on economic growth of establishments. Journal of Regional Science, 42(4), 703–730.
Ham, J. C., Swenson, C., İmrohoroğlu, A., & Song, H. (2011). Government programs can improve local labor markets: Evidence from state enterprise zones, federal empowerment zones and federal enterprise community. Journal of Public Economics, 95(7–8), 779–797.
Hicks, M. J. (2016). Why have local economic development efforts been so disappointing? Muncie IN: Center for Business and Economic Research, Ball State University. https://projects.cberdata.org/reports/DisappointingEconDevt-20160620.pdf
Hicks, M. J., & Devaraj, S. (2015). The myth and the reality of manufacturing in America. Muncie, IN: Center for Business and Economic Research, Ball State University. https://projects.cberdata.org/reports/MfgReality-20170428.pdf
Hicks, M. J., & LaFaive, M. (2011). The influence of targeted economic development tax incentives on county economic growth: Evidence from Michigan’s MEGA credits. Economic Development Quarterly, 25(2), 193–205.
Houseman, S., Kurz, C., Lengermann, P., & Mandel, B. (2011). Offshoring bias in U.S. manufacturing. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(2), 111–132. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.25.2.111
Johnson, R. C., Kahlil, A., & Dunifon, R. E. (2012). Employment patterns of less-skilled workers: Links to children’s behavior and academic progress. Demography, 49(2), 747–772. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-011-0086-4
Kalil, A., & Wightman, P. (2011). Parental job loss and children’s educational attainment in black and white middle-class families. Social Science Quarterly, 92(1), 57–78.
Kalil, A., & Ziol-Guest, K. M. (2008). Parental employment circumstances and children’s academic progress. Social Science Research, 37(2), 500–515. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2007.08.007
Krueger, A. B., & Meyer, B. D. (2002). Labor supply effects of social insurance. In A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (Eds.), Handbook of public economics (Vol. 4, pp. 2327–2392). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Manyika, J., Lund, S., Chui, M., Bughin, J., Woetzel, J., Batra, P., … Sanghci, S. (2017). Jobs lost, jobs gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation. New York, NY: McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/Future%20of%20Organizations/What%20the%20future%20of%20work%20will%20mean%20for%20jobs%20skills%20and%20wages/MGI-Jobs-Lost-Jobs-Gained-Report-December-6-2017.ashx
Moretti, E. (2012). The new geography of jobs. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
Neumark, D., & Kolko, J. (2010). Do enterprise zones create jobs? Evidence from California’s enterprise zone program. Journal of Urban Economics, 68(1), 1–19.
O∗NET Online (2019). Occupational Information Network. https://www.onetonline.org/
Page, M., Stevens, A. H., & Lindo, J. (2009). Parental incomes shocks and outcomes of disadvantaged youth in the United States. In J. Gruber (Ed.), The problems of disadvantaged youth: An economic perspective (pp. 213–235). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Pierce, J. R., & Schott, P. K. (2016). The surprisingly swift decline of U.S. manufacturing employment. The American Economic Review, 106(7), 1632–1662.
Reese, L. A. (2013). If all you have is a hammer: Finding economic development policies that matter. The American Review of Public Administration, 44(6), 627–655. https://doi.org/10.1177/0275074013483166
Ricardo, D. (1817). On the principles of economy and taxation. London: John Murray. Albemarle Street. Retrieved from The Library of Economics and Liberty. http://www.econlib.org/library/Ricardo/ricP.html
Schultz, T. W. (1975). The value of the ability to deal with disequilibria. Journal of Economic Literature, 13(3), 827–846.
Smith, T. D., & Rivkin, J. W. (2008). A replication study of Alan Blinder's ‘how many U.S. jobs might be offshorable?’ (Working Paper No. 08-104). Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School. https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=32566
Sullivan, D., & von Wachter, T. (2009). Job displacement and mortality: An analysis using administrative data. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(3), 1265–1306. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2009.124.3.1265
Von Wachter, T. (2010, April 29). Long-term unemployment: Causes, consequences, and solutions. Hearing before the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress. https://www.jec.senate.gov/reports/111th%20Congress/Long-Term%20Unemployment%20-%20Causes,%20Consequences,%20and%20Solutions%20(1878).pdf
Weingast, B. R. (2009). Second generation fiscal federalism: The implications of fiscal incentives. Journal of Urban Economics, 65(3), 279–293.
Yagan, D. (2016). The enduring employment impact of your great recession location (Working Paper No. 108-16). Berkeley, CA: Institute for Research on Labor and Employment. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/12d0w9bs
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Devaraj, S., Wornell, E.J., Faulk, D., Hicks, M. (2020). Rural Job Loss to Offshoring and Automation. In: Glick, J., McHale, S., King, V. (eds) Rural Families and Communities in the United States. National Symposium on Family Issues, vol 10. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37689-5_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37689-5_4
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-37688-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-37689-5
eBook Packages: Behavioral Science and PsychologyBehavioral Science and Psychology (R0)