Abstract
An operationally efficient DSS should be designed to operate on different time and spatial scales and to meet the needs of producers and policymakers. Introduction of novel scientific techniques and weather forecast in plant and harmful organism phenology modelling is an important prerequisite for clear and publishable recommendations. The presented examples of monthly and seasonal forecast application in phenology dynamics and its use in PIS as a DSS rely on strong scientific background—models calibrated and validated using biological observations and meteorological measurements. It serves as a reminder of how important it is to stick to the basics: observe events, measure relevant variables and then apply all available tools and techniques to produce high-quality information.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the support received from the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia within the framework of integrated and interdisciplinary research for 2011–2017 for the work on the “Studying climate change and its influence on the environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation” project (43007). All activities of PIS were financed by the Provincial Secretariat for Agriculture, Water Management and Forestry trough the “Project of establishing Forecasting and Reporting Service for Plant Protection of AP Vojvodina”.
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Appendix: Example of Recommendation
Appendix: Example of Recommendation
Each recommendation is based on the original (biological and meteorological) and derived (biometeorological) monitoring data and the data from the protection model. Here is an example of the recommendation for the protection of apples for the Novi Sad region.
In the region of Novi Sad, one of the representative locations for monitoring the production of apples is designated as Novi Sad/Neštin/apple. This location has been equipped with a complete range of tools such as pheromone trap, automatic meteorological station, spore catcher, while visual inspections of plants host, pathogens and pests are performed on a regular basis. The agricultural producer incumbent at this monitoring location applies all measures recommended by PIS, i.e. the apple protection model is applied.
The verbatim recommendation is presented in Table 29.8, where it can be seen that the document was published on 7 June 2018, that it concerned the protection of apples in the Novi Sad region, and that the subject matter was four harmful organisms: apple scab (Venturia inaequalis), powdery mildew (Podosphaera leucotricha), codling moth (Carpocapsa pomonella) and green apple aphid (Aphis pomi).
The observations from monitoring tools and the calculated values presented in Table 29.9 relate to the monitoring conducted on 7 June 2018 at the monitoring site Novi Sad/Nestin/apple. These data were the elements used for the preparation of the recommendation.
Biometeorological data obtained on 7 June 2018 for the monitoring site Novi Sad/Nestin/apple, which were basic elements for the preparation of the recommendation, are shown in Table 29.10. In addition to the data that the Service calculates automatically, results of other analyses can also be included in the recommendation. All these data are supplied in order to help growers make correct decisions about the application of chemical protection measures. Explanations of meteorological data registered by AMS can be especially useful when assessing conditions that could lead to a pathogenic infection. In the case of this particular recommendation, the Service analysed the obtained AMS data for the length of foliage exposure to high humidity and the average daily temperatures during this and the previous two days in order to determine whether the climatic conditions were favourable for the development of the apple scab (Venturia inaequalis). This piece of information was important for the selection of correct fungicide, whether the one with preventive or the one with curative action.
Based on the above information, the prepared recommendation should offer an answer on the following questions: Why is a particular measure recommended? When the measure should be implemented? Which pesticide to apply and what dose? A short summary is presented in Table 29.11.
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Lalic, B. et al. (2020). Landscape Phenology Modelling and Decision Support in Serbia. In: Mirschel, W., Terleev, V., Wenkel, KO. (eds) Landscape Modelling and Decision Support. Innovations in Landscape Research. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37421-1_29
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