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A New Era of Congressional Budgeting

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A History (and Future) of the Budget Process in the United States

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Abstract

Voters and politicians in the past have demanded some level of control over the deficit when it reaches a high-water mark if, for no other reason, to achieve some level of symbolic victory over the federal debt. However, the last forty years of history demonstrates how difficult it has become to reduce the deficit even during periods of economic growth. Presidents have commonly sought to stimulate the economy while the economy was growing only to be pulled back by a Congress controlled by the opposing party. However, when both Congress and the White House are controlled by the same party, fiscal tightening is mostly shelved. The Clinton era is the only recent connection with the neo-Keynesian budget policies of the post-World War II period.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    A. James Wagner, “Weather and Circulation of July 1974 – Heat Wave and Drought Over the Middle Third of the Country,” Monthly Weather Review 102 (1974): 736–742.

  2. 2.

    See Herber (1971) for more on the policy of automatic stabilization.

  3. 3.

    One of the best early treatments of the Congressional Budget Act and its experience over the first five years is Schick (1980).

  4. 4.

    Schick, “The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (P.L. 93–344): Legislative History and Analysis.”

  5. 5.

    Penner and Abramson (1988) argue that the Congressional Budget Act did little to encourage Congress and the president to balance the budget or reduce the debt. Rather, political pressures have resulted in increased debt which have resulted in process breakdowns.

  6. 6.

    U.S. Congress Joint Study Committee on Budget Control, Recommendations for Improving Congressional Control Over Budgetary Outlay and Receipt Totals, Final Report (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1973).

  7. 7.

    Schick, “The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (P.L. 93–344): Legislative History and Analysis.”

  8. 8.

    Ibid.

  9. 9.

    Ibid.

  10. 10.

    Ibid.

  11. 11.

    Ibid.

  12. 12.

    Ibid.

  13. 13.

    Ibid.

  14. 14.

    Lawrence J. Korb, “An Analysis of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.” Naval War College Review 29, no. 4 (1975): 40–52.

  15. 15.

    Schick, “The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (P.L. 93–344): Legislative History and Analysis.”

  16. 16.

    Ibid.

  17. 17.

    Ibid.

  18. 18.

    Ibid.

  19. 19.

    Ibid.

  20. 20.

    Philip G. Joyce, “The Congressional Budget Office at Middle Age,” Working Paper, Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings (2015).

  21. 21.

    Congressional Budget Office, Inflation and Unemployment: A Report on the Economy, Report to Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office, 1975).

  22. 22.

    Philip G. Joyce, The Congressional Budget Office : Honest Numbers, Power, and Policymaking (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2011).

  23. 23.

    Alice M. Rivlin, “Reform of the Budget Process,” The American Economic Review : Papers and Proceedings of the Ninety-Sixth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association 74, no. 2 (1984): 133–137.

  24. 24.

    Joyce, The Congressional Budget Office : Honest Numbers, Power, and Policymaking.

  25. 25.

    Ibid.

  26. 26.

    Andrew Prokop, “The Congressional Budget Office, explained,” Vox, June 26, 2017, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/13/14860856/congressional-budget-office-cbo-explained

  27. 27.

    Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “Playing By the (Budget) Rules: Understanding and Preventing Budget Gimmicks,” CRFB.org , February 26, 2018, https://www.crfb.org/papers/playing-budget-rules-understanding-and-preventing-budget-gimmicks

  28. 28.

    Benjamin R. Civiletti, Applicability of the Antideficiency Act Upon a Lapse in an Agency’s Appropriations, Legal Memorandum (Washington: U.S. Department of Justice, 1980).

  29. 29.

    Ibid.

  30. 30.

    Ibid.

  31. 31.

    Ibid.

  32. 32.

    Ibid.

  33. 33.

    Gretchen Frazee and Lisa Desjardins, “How the government shutdown compared to every other since 1976.” PBS News Hour, December 26, 2018, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/every-government-shutdown-from-1976-to-now

  34. 34.

    Savage , Balanced Budgets and American Politics.

  35. 35.

    James M. Buchanan and Richard E. Wagner, Fiscal Responsibility in Constitutional Democracy (Boston, MA: Martinus Nijhoff Social Sciences Division, 1977).

  36. 36.

    Stephen J. Turnovsky, “Stabilization Theory and Policy: 50 Years after the Phillips Curve.” Economica 78, no. 309 (2009): 67–88.

  37. 37.

    George L. Perry, “Inflation and Theory in Practice.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1980): 207–260.

  38. 38.

    Joseph White and Aaron Wildavsky, The Deficit and the Public Interest: The Search for Responsible Federal Budgeting in the 1980s (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1989).

  39. 39.

    Savage , Balanced Budgets and American Politics.

  40. 40.

    Michael Babunakis, Budget Reform for Government (Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 1982).

  41. 41.

    William A. Niskanen, Reaganomics (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1988).

  42. 42.

    Savage , Balanced Budgets and American Politics.

  43. 43.

    Dennis S. Ippolito, Uncertain Legacies: Federal Budget Policy from Roosevelt through Reagan (Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press, 1990).

  44. 44.

    U.S. Treasury Office of the Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy, The Effects of Deficits on Prices of Financial Assets: Theory and Evidence, Economic Policy Research Paper (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Treasury, 1984); William Dupor and Li Rong, “The Expected Inflation Channel of Government Spending in the Postwar U.S.” European Economic Review 74 (2015): 36–56.

  45. 45.

    Frederic H. Mishkin, “The Causes of Inflation.” Price Stability and Public Policy (Kansas City, MO: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1984): 1–24.

  46. 46.

    Ronald, Reagan, “Address to the Nation on the Economy,” Presidential Address. (Washington, DC: February 5, 1984). The economist Milton Friedman also believed that the government would spend what it collected and, therefore, to reduce the deficit you must reduce taxes and spending. On this point see: Penner (1991).

  47. 47.

    President’s Private Sector Survey on Cost Control, A Report to the President (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1984).

  48. 48.

    Kevin D. Hoover and Steven M. Sheffrin, “Causation, Spending, and Taxes: Sand in the Sandbox or Tax Collector for the Welfare State?” The American Economic Review 82, no. 1 (1992): 225–248.

  49. 49.

    Robert E. Lucas, Jr., “Principles of Fiscal and Monetary Policy,” Journal of Monetary Economics 17, no. 1 (1986): 117–134.

  50. 50.

    Aaron Wildavsky, The New Politics of the Budget Process (Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman & Co., 1988).

  51. 51.

    Chistina D. Romer and David H. Romer, “Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2009: 139–200).

  52. 52.

    Peter T. Kilborn, “Reagan and the Deficit,” The New York Times , April 26, 1985.

  53. 53.

    There are many histories of the Reagan years including Makin and Ornstein 1994, Rubin 2003, Ippolito 1990, Pascall 1985, and White and Wildavsky 1989.

  54. 54.

    Romer and Romer, “Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending?”

  55. 55.

    (Flickinger 1987)

  56. 56.

    Congressional Record , August 7, 1987, S23169.

  57. 57.

    Congressional Record , August 7, 1987, pp. S23169-S23170.

  58. 58.

    Congressional Record , August 7, 1987, pp. S23170.

  59. 59.

    Congressional Record , September 16, 1987, pp. H24269.

  60. 60.

    Roy T. Meyers, “The ‘Ball of Confusion’ in Federal Budgeting: A Shadow Agenda for Deliberative Reform of the Budget Process,” Public Administration Review 69, no. 2 (2009): 211–223; Alan J. Auerbach, “The U.S. Fiscal Problem: Where We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We’re Going,” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 9 (1994): 141–175.

  61. 61.

    Robert D. Reischauer, “Taxes and Spending Under Gramm-Rudman-Hollings,” National Tax Journal 43, no. 3 (1990): 223–23.

  62. 62.

    Ibid.

  63. 63.

    John E. Yang, “Budget Negotiators Meet at Andrews in Cheery, Summer-Camp Like Mood,” The Washington Post, September 8, 1990, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/09/08/budget-negotiators-meet-at-andrews-in-cheery-summer-camp-like-mood/1c28e813-e7f8-46b5-96ab-220e8c69b97c/

  64. 64.

    Auerbach, “The U.S. Fiscal Problem: Where We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We’re Going.”

  65. 65.

    Rosemary D. Marcuss, “Budget Rules and Tax Legislation: Experience Under the Budget Enforcement Act,” Proceedings on Taxation held under the Auspices of the National Tax Association – Tax Institute of America (Washington, DC: Tax Institute of America, 1992): 90–96.

  66. 66.

    Philip G. Joyce, The Congressional Budget Office : Honest Numbers, Power, and Policymaking (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2011).

  67. 67.

    Paul. Winfree, “How Enacted Reconciliation Bills Have Changed the Deficit.” N58 Policy Research Blog, December 29, 2017, https://www.n58policy.com/blog/2017/12/29/how-enacted-reconciliation-bills-have-changed-the-deficit

  68. 68.

    Besides misapplication (Gilmour 1990) suggests that the reconciliation process transfers power out of committees and into majorities that pass the resolution.

  69. 69.

    Congressional Record , October 24, 1985, pp. S14032.

  70. 70.

    This number is based on CBO’s analysis of each bill at the time of enactment. For some bills, CBO only provides a five-year estimate. For others, it provides a ten-year analysis.

  71. 71.

    Meyers , “The ‘Ball of Confusion’ in Federal Budgeting: A Shadow Agenda for Deliberative Reform of the Budget Process.”

  72. 72.

    Alan J. Auerbach, “Fiscal Policy, Past and Present,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1 (2003): 75–122.

  73. 73.

    Veronique De Rugy, Spending Under President George W. Bush ,” Working Paper (Arlington, VA: Mercatus Center at George Mason University, 2009).

  74. 74.

    Dan L. Crippen, Extending the Budget Enforcement Act , Testimony before the House of Representatives Committee on the Budget (Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office, 2001).

  75. 75.

    Richard W. Stevenson, “The 2000 Campaign: The Budget Issue; Bush and Gore Revise Plans To Match a Growing Surplus,” The New York Times , June 13, 2000.

  76. 76.

    Peter J. Wallison, “Is George W. Bush Following the Reagan Model? A Lecture at the Ronald Reagan Library,” American Enterprise Institute, March 19, 2003.

  77. 77.

    George W. Bush, “History: Presidential Statements: Address To Joint Session of the Congress--February 27, 2001,” Social Security Online, February 27, 2001. https://www.ssa.gov/history/gwbushstmts.html#jointsession

  78. 78.

    Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Estimating the Cost of the Medicare Modernization Act , Testimony before the House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Means (Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office, 2004).

  79. 79.

    Joe Richardson, Food Stamps and Nutrition Programs in the 2002 Farm Bill , Report for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2006).

  80. 80.

    Richard Kogan, “The New Pay-As-You-Go Rule in The House of Representatives,” Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, January 12, 2007, https://www.cbpp.org/research/the-new-pay-as-you-go-rule-in-the-house-of-representatives

  81. 81.

    U.S. Senate Committee on the Budget Republican Staff, “The New Adventures of “Old” Pay-Go,” U.S. Senate Committee on the Budget, February 12, 2008, https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/bb01-2008.pdf

  82. 82.

    Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from July 2012 Through September 2012, Report to Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office, 2012).

  83. 83.

    Cammie Croft, “Fiscal Responsibility Summit Report,” The White House Archives, March 20, 2009, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2009/03/20/fiscal-responsibility-summit-report

  84. 84.

    Peter Orszag, “Opening Remarks at Fiscal Responsibility Summit,” The New York Times , February 23, 2009.

  85. 85.

    The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility, The Moment of Truth. Final Report (Washington, DC: The White House, 2010).

  86. 86.

    Roya Wolverson, “Midterm Elections 2010: Spending Wars,” Council on Foreign Relations , October 18, 2010, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/midterm-elections-2010-spending-wars

  87. 87.

    Julie Mason and Meredith Shiner, “Joe Biden begins debt talks,” Politico, May 5, 2011, https://www.politico.com/story/2011/05/joe-biden-begins-debt-talks-054362

  88. 88.

    Leonard Jay Santow, The Budget Deficit : The Causes, The Costs, The Outlook (New York: The New York Institute of Finance, 1988) suggests that “Members of Congress want a debt ceiling for many reasons – virtually none of which has anything to do with containing the deficit.” That is almost always true, of course, but in 2011 House Republicans found the debt limit to be a useful vehicle to enact spending reforms.

  89. 89.

    Congressional Budget Office, “Discretionary Spending Under the Budget Control Act of 2011,” Congressional Budget Office, August 8, 2011, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/42214

  90. 90.

    Paul Winfree, “Causes of the Federal Government’s Unsustainable Spending,” The Heritage Foundation, July 7, 2016, https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/causes-the-federal-governments-unsustainable-spending

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Winfree, P. (2019). A New Era of Congressional Budgeting. In: A History (and Future) of the Budget Process in the United States. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30959-6_7

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