Abstract
Creating more accurate reconstructions of past Antarctic ice sheet shapes allows us to better predict how they will vary in the changing climate and contribute to future sea level changes. In this research, we use expert elicitation to create a subjective prior distribution of the Antarctic ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21Ka. A design of shapes from this distribution will be run through the global climate model HadCM3, providing us with output that we can compare with proxy data to find a better estimate of the ice sheet shape at the LGM.
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Notes
- 1.
Ice sheet modeller, rart@bas.ac.uk.
- 2.
Glaciologist, rcah@bas.ac.uk.
- 3.
Sedimentologist, daho@bas.ac.uk.
- 4.
Science leader of the Ice Dynamics and Palaeoclimate team, rmu@bas.ac.uk.
- 5.
Sedimentologist, jaas@bas.ac.uk.
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Turner, F., Wilkinson, R., Buck, C., Jones, J., Sime, L. (2019). Ice Cores and Emulation: Learning More About Past Ice Sheet Shapes. In: Argiento, R., Durante, D., Wade, S. (eds) Bayesian Statistics and New Generations. BAYSM 2018. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 296. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30611-3_18
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