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Nuclear Non-proliferation and Arms Control Verification pp 373–390Cite as

Strategic Trade Analysis for Non-proliferation

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Abstract

Strategic trade analysis is about national and global trade flows of items with strategic military value. Strategic items include goods with exclusive military use, but also dual-use items that have both military and civil uses. Because of their strategic nature, dual-use goods are controlled as a measure of non-proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Trade analysis in dual-use items, in particular the nuclear related ones listed for export controls by the Nuclear Suppliers Group, is the focus of this contribution. Despite the global dimension of strategic trade and controls, no specific data are available on global strategic trade. We thus suggest using open source data on global trade to support strategic trade analysis. The data are not specific to strategic trade, but related to it, providing a portrait of strategic trade in the absence of more specific data. It can be expected the effectiveness of controls be enhanced in several ways by the analysis of trade data related to strategic goods. By understanding the national and global trade in strategic-related commodities, officials may better focus controls, select companies for in-reach and audit, target transactions for analysis, verification, and inspection, and assess potential economic impacts of trade control regulations. The chapter covers data sources, a methodology for data selection, underpinning tools and data use cases. The context for strategic trade analysis is briefly recalled by introducing lists of items subject to export controls, with a focus on the nuclear-related ones.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Regulation 428/2009 is referred to in this chapter also as ‘the dual-use Regulation’ or simply ‘the Regulation’.

  2. 2.

    See Davis [8], pp. 57–68, for an historical account on the development of the EU Regulation on dual-use exports.

  3. 3.

    Number of leaf nodes counted in Annex I tree of items.

  4. 4.

    Equipment or material especially designed or prepared for the processing, use or production of special fissionable material, as defined in article III.2 of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [12]. At its origin, the NSG Part 1 list incorporated the 1974 Trigger List by the Zangger Committee on items whose transfer would ‘trigger’ a requirement for safeguards (see [4], p. 3).

  5. 5.

    The term ‘dual-use’ as used in the NSG context indicates items that can have both nuclear and non-nuclear uses. The same term ‘dual-use’ is used differently in the broader context of strategic trade controls, where it refers to items that can have both military and civil uses, as seen in the Introduction.

  6. 6.

    Annex II of the Additional Protocol is based on Annex B of the NSG Guidelines Part 1 published in October 1995.

  7. 7.

    Respecting national provisions on data confidentiality.

  8. 8.

    Why was the Correlation Table developed? The CT is an instrument to inform EU exporters and customs officers on the restrictions that apply to the export of items defined in Annex I to the dual-use Regulation. As such, the CT is part of the ‘Integrated tariff of the European Communities’ or TARIC [24], a system which incorporates all Community legislation on trade concerning tariff suspensions, quotas, import/export prohibitions, surveillance, restrictions. TARIC identifies goods by 10-digit codes, a subdivision of the CN. Querying the TARIC database on such codes returns all legislative measure that may apply to the trade of the corresponding goods. For example, by querying TARIC on 2612101000 (code for ‘Uranium ores and pitchblende‘, see Table 4) traders are made aware that an export authorization is required if the good to be exported is item 0C001 ‘Natural uranium …’ listed under the dual-use Regulation. It is to the exporter the final determination of whether the specific good to be exported fully corresponds to the descriptive text of the related controlled entry listed in Annex I.

  9. 9.

    By major items it is meant items identified by a code of length 5, such as 0A001.

  10. 10.

    BAFA, the German Authority for export controls, also developed and maintains a correspondence table (Umschlüsselungsverzeichnis) between items in Annex I of the dual-use Regulation and CN commodities. The table is published with explanatory notes in German under the site http://www.ausfuhrkontrolle.info/.

  11. 11.

    E.g., the EU dual-use Regulation, the NSG Guidelines, the Model Additional Protocol.

  12. 12.

    E.g., the MTCR [34] and the AG handbooks [35].

  13. 13.

    The Harmonized System and the Combined Nomenclature.

  14. 14.

    Written by one of the authors of the present chapter.

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Acknowledgements

The work presented in this chapter stem from activities performed in the project Information Analysis and methodologies for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and security, work package on Strategic Trade Analysis for Non-Proliferation (STANP), funded by (i) the European Commission (EC), Euratom Horizon 2020 Research and Training Programme, (ii) Administrative Arrangement JRC.ITU.AA.32608-2011 between DG TRADE and JRC, (iii) Administrative Arrangement IFS/2012/301-675 (as amended in 2014) between DG DEVCO and JRC. STANP contributes to the EC Support Programme to the IAEA under Task EC D 1662, and to the Collaboration Agreement between the United States Department of Energy (DOE) and the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM) under Action Sheet 57.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. EC Directorate General Joint Research Centre, Directorate G - Nuclear Safety and Security, Ispra, Italy

    Cristina Versino & Giacomo G.  M. Cojazzi

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  1. Cristina Versino
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  2. Giacomo G.  M. Cojazzi
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Correspondence to Cristina Versino .

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  1. IEK-6: Nuclear Waste Management and Reactor Safety, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany

    Irmgard Niemeyer

  2. Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA

    Mona Dreicer

  3. Consultant, Bonn, Germany

    Gotthard Stein

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Versino, C., Cojazzi, G.G. . (2020). Strategic Trade Analysis for Non-proliferation. In: Niemeyer, I., Dreicer, M., Stein, G. (eds) Nuclear Non-proliferation and Arms Control Verification. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29537-0_25

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