Abstract
“When will the project performance indices in my project become stable?” is an ever interesting fundamental question in earned value management (EVM) but mostly unresolved as well, especially for the highly dynamic construction projects which call for frequent updating and rescheduling. The stability of the performance indices assures the credibility of EVM as an effective tool to analyse the project performances as well as to forecast the requirements. This paper presents an assessment of time and cost performance stability in EVM based on an analytical stability simulation model which evaluates the probability of the stable project performance indices during the project execution for topologically diverse construction project networks. The model is used to identify the effects of percentage completion, network topology as well as its compounding effects on the stability of EVM forecasting and topology–stability relations were developed for schedule performances. Finally, the performance indices are compared for the stability behaviour.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Schnaars S (1984) Situational factors affecting forecast accuracy. J Market Res 21(3):290–297
Payne K (1990) An investigation of the stability of the cost performance index. Technical Rep., Air Force Institute of Technology, WrightPatterson AFB, OH
Christensen D, Heise S (1993) Cost performance index stability. Nat Contract Manage J 25:7–15
Zwikael O, Globerson S, Tzvi R (2000) Evaluation of models for forecasting the final cost of a project. Project Manage J 31:53–57
Christensen D, Templin C (2002) EAC evaluation methods: do they still work? Acquis Rev Q 9:105–116
Henderson K, Zwikael O (2008) Does project performance stability exist? A re-examination of CPI and evaluation of SPIðtÞ stability. CrossTalk 21:7–13
Wauters M, Vanhoucke M (2014) Study of the stability of earned value management forecasting. J Constr Eng Manag 141(1992):1–10. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000947
Kim B (2015 May) Probabilistic evaluation of cost performance stability in earned value management. J Manag Eng 32:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000383
Koning P, Vanhoucke M (2016) Stability of earned value do project characteristics influence the stability moment of the cost and schedule performance index. J Mod Proj Manag
PMI (Project Management Institute) (2013) A guide to the project management body of knowledge, 5th edn. Newton Square, PA
Vanhoucke M (2009) Measuring time—improving project performance using earned value management, vol 136. International series in operations research and management science. Springer, New York
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Ladeeda, V.H., Jeevan, J. (2020). Probabilistic Evaluation of the Stability in Earned Value Management Forecasting on Topologically Diverse Project Networks. In: Dasgupta, K., Sajith, A., Unni Kartha, G., Joseph, A., Kavitha, P., Praseeda, K. (eds) Proceedings of SECON'19. SECON 2019. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol 46. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26365-2_66
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26365-2_66
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-26364-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-26365-2
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)