Abstract
This chapter investigates President Trump’s effect on the electoral fortunes of House Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections. It focuses on candidates President Trump endorsed on Twitter, the 25 Republican candidates who ran for election in districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and the 11 Democratic candidates who ran for election in districts that President Trump won in 2016. In addition, it also explores vote swings in House districts between 2016 and 2018.
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Notes
- 1.
Donald J. Trump, “Remarks by President Trump in Press Conference After Midterm Elections,” November 7, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-press-conference-midterm-elections/
- 2.
The president’s claim about Barr’s polling numbers is a bit suspect as only one public poll taken between August and November 2018 showed Barr behind in the race, and that poll was taken by a Democratic leaning polling organization. See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/kentucky/6/
- 3.
Phillip Bump, “Trump’s Endorsement Record on Twitter: 50-50,” Washington Post, November 7, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/07/trumps-endorsement-record-twitter-/
- 4.
William Cummings, “Trump Endorses Rep. Dan Donovan Who He Mistakenly Says Voted For Tax Bill,” USA Today, May 30, 2018, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/05/30/trump-endorses-rep-donovan-saying-he-voted-tax-bill-he-didnt/658326002/
- 5.
Eliza Relman, “Democrat Max Rose Defeats Incumbent Republican Dan Donovan on Staten Island” Business Insider, November 6, 2018, https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-republican-voters-staten-island-trump-house-2018-11
- 6.
I do not include candidates who ran unopposed in 2016 or 2018, or candidates who ran in newly redistricted Pennsylvania House districts when I calculate changes in Republican candidate vote share from 2016 to 2018.
- 7.
Adam Nagourney and Robert Gebeloff, “In Orange County, a Republican Fortress Turns Democratic,” New York Times, December 31, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/us/orange-county-republicans-democrats-demographics.html
- 8.
Ben Kamisar and Lisa Hagen, “Vulnerable Republicans Back Obamacare Replacement,” The Hill, May 4, 2017, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/331992-vulnerable-republicans-back-obamacare-replacement
- 9.
James Boyle, “Brian Fitzpatrick Denounces Donald Trump, Won’t Vote for Republican Presidential Candidate,” Bucks County Courier Times, October 8, 2016, https://www.buckscountycouriertimes.com/d73c47c9-7a90-5e51-ac0a-5aee854c4875.html
- 10.
Colby Itkowitz, “Is Spurning Trump Enough? Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick Is About To Find Out,” Washington Post, October 28, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/is-spurning-trump-enough-republican-rep-brian-fitzpatrick-is-about-to-find-out/2018/10/28/53131f60-d21c-11e8-8c22-fa2ef74bd6d6_story.html?utm_term=.35bcc81bfc0b
- 11.
Holly Otterbein, “How Brian Fitzpatrick Won in an ‘Atrocious Political Environment’ for Republicans,” Philadelphia Inquirer, November 7, 2018. http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/elections/pa-3rd-district-brian-fitzpatrick-suburban-republican-democrat-scott-wallace-election-20181107.html
- 12.
Otterbein.
- 13.
Will Hurd, “Trump is Being Manipulated By Putin. What Should We Do?” New York Times, July 19, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/opinion/trump-russia-putin-republican-congress.html
- 14.
Patrick Svitek, “In Age of Trump, Republican U.S. Rep. Will Hurd’s Independence Again on the Ballot in 23rd District,” Texas Tribune, September 26, 2018, https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/26/will-hurd-gina-ortiz-jones-trump-record-cd-23/
- 15.
Marty Schladen, “GOP Congressman Hurd Dumps Trump,” El Paso Times, October 8, 2016, https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2016/10/08/gop-congressman-hurd-dumps-trump/91798246/
- 16.
Alexis Simendinger, “Texas GOP Lawmaker: Trump Wall ‘Expensive and Least Effective’ Security Plan,” The Hill February 10, 2018, https://thehill.com/podcasts/hillcast/373240-texas-gop-lawmaker-trump-wall-expensive-and-least-effective-security-plan
- 17.
Mark Weiner, “Rep. Jon Katko: Donald Trump Should Drop Out of Presidential Race” Syracuse.com , October 8, 2016, https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/rep_john_katko_donald_trump_should_drop_out_of_presidential_race.html
- 18.
Mark Weiner, “Rep. John Katko in Final Debate: ‘I’m Not President Trump’” Syracuse.com November 4, 2018, https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/11/rep_john_katko_in_final_debate_im_not_president_trump.html
- 19.
Mark Weiner, “Rep. John Katko Ranks As 8th Most Independent Republican in Congress” Syracuse.com , October 12, 2016, https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/rep_john_katko_ranks_as_8th_most_independent_republican_in_congress.html
- 20.
John Katko For Congress, https://www.johnkatkoforcongress.com/
- 21.
John Katko, “Statement from U.S. Rep. John Katko Regarding President Trump’s Summit With Vladimir Putin,” https://katko.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/statement-us-rep-john-katko-regarding-president-trump-s-summit-vladimir
- 22.
“Tracking Congress in the Age of Trump,” FiveThirtyEight, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/
- 23.
Jenna Portnoy, “In a Swingy Virginia Suburb, Can Republican Barbara Comstock Outhustle a Blue Wave?” Washington Post, September 25, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/in-a-swingy-virginia-suburb-can-republican-barbara-comstock-out-hustle-a-blue-wave/2018/09/25/2ffda516-ab2c-11e8-a8d7-0f63ab8b1370_story.html
- 24.
Paul Bedard, “GOP, Speaker Ryan, Go All In For Barbara Comstock In Embattled NoVa Race” Washington Examiner, September 18, 2018, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/gop-speaker-ryan-go-all-in-for-barbara-comstock-in-embattled-nova-race
- 25.
Michael Tackett, “The Republican Always Shows Up. That May Not Be Enough This Fall” Washington Post July 3, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/03/us/politics/barbara-comstock-house-race.html
- 26.
Jenna Portnoy. “Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock of Virginia Urges Trump to Drop Out of Race,” Washington Post, October 8, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/republican-rep-barbara-comstock-of-virginia-urges-trump-to-drop-out-of-race/2016/10/07/79119406-8d06-11e6-bff0-d53f592f176e_story.html
- 27.
Jenna Portnoy, “Comstock to Trump: ‘We Don’t Need a Shutdown Over This,” Washington Post February 6, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/comstock-tells-trump-we-dont-need-a-shutdown-over-this/2018/02/06/2ae5bed4-0b7b-11e8-95a5-c396801049ef_story.html?utm_term=.93d312dc99d5
- 28.
Virginia Department of Elections, “Election Results,” https://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/election-results/index.html
- 29.
Gerald Connolly, “As Rohrabacher Defends Trump and Russia, Reelection Bid Looks Murky” Rollcall, July 17, 2018, https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/rohrabacher-defends-trump-russia-re-election-bid-looks-murky
- 30.
John Wagner, “Trump Tours Support for Rohrabacher in Early Morning Tweet” Washington Post, November 5, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/live-updates/midterms/midterm-election-updates/trump-touts-support-for-rohrabacher-in-early-morning-tweet/?utm_term=.66dfa691e09e
- 31.
Hagedorn Congress, http://JimHagedorn.org
- 32.
Minnesota Secretary of State, “Results for All Congressional Districts,” https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/Results/USRepresentative/115
- 33.
Two of these races were unopposed in 2016 and 2018. They are not included in my calculations measuring the decrease in Republican candidate vote share.
- 34.
Sean Rossman, “The Suburbs Turned on Republicans and Trump. The Midterm Elections Prove It,” USA Today, November 8, 2018, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/08/midterms-suburbs-republicans-democrats-trump/1921590002/
- 35.
Emily Badger, Quoctrung Bui, and Josh Katz, “The Suburbs Are Changing. But Not in All the Ways Liberals Hope,” New York Times, November 26, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/26/upshot/suburbs-changing-midterms-democrats-hopes.html
- 36.
“2018 House Exit Polls,” CNN, https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
- 37.
2016 House Exit Polls. CNN, https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/house
- 38.
2018 House Exit Polls.
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Hickey, P.T. (2020). President Trump’s Effect on House Republicans. In: Foreman, S., Godwin, M., Wilson, W. (eds) The Roads to Congress 2018. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19819-0_5
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