Skip to main content

A Major Stagnation, But Not a Secular One

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Progress or Freedom

Abstract

What a strange expression “secular stagnation” is! It is a reaction against the naïve outlook of our Western societies, which refuse to contemplate any other scenario than the politically correct one, termed “progress”. As ever, the truth actually lies between two visions: one naïve, the other deathly. The object of the following chapter is to establish how politicians must strive for a realistic improvement in our living standards. This vast issue is affected negatively and positively by digital, environmental and demographic changes, and by breakthroughs in the fields of energy, genetics, information technology and astrophysics. These factors also lead us to reflect on possible new forms of growth.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

eBook
USD 19.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 27.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Arthur, W. B. (1996). Increasing Returns and the New World of Business. Harvard Business Review, 74, 100.

    Google Scholar 

  • Auciello, D. (2014). Ces géants mégalos qui dirigent le monde [Those Megalomaniac Giants Who Lead the World]. Bilan.ch. Available via https://www.bilan.ch/economie/ces_geants_megalos_qui_dirigent_le_monde.

  • Blanchard, O., Furceri, D., & Pescatori, A. (2014). A Prolonged Period of Low Real Interest Rates? In Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures. Center for Economic Policy Research Press. Available at VOX CEPR Policy Portal https://voxeu.org/content/secular-stagnation-facts-causes-and-cures.

  • Braudel, F. (1979). Civilization and Capitalism 15–18th Century, Vol 1: The Structures of Everyday Life: The Limits of the Possible (2002 ed., S. Reynolds, Trans.). London: Phoenix Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Colin, N., Landier, A., Mohnen, P., & Perrot, A. (2015). Economie numerique. Les Notes du Conseil d’analyse économique (26). Available in English as The Digital Economy, via http://www.cae-eco.fr/IMG/pdf/cae-note026-en.pdf.

  • Crafts, N. (2014). Secular Stagnation: US Hypochondria, European Disease? In Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures. Center for Economic Policy Research Press. Available at VOX CEPR Policy Portal https://voxeu.org/content/secular-stagnation-facts-causes-and-cures.

  • David, P. A. (1990). The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox. Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred and Second Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, 80(2), 355–361.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duby, G. (1997). An 1000 – An 2000 – Sur les traces de nos peurs. Paris: Éditions Textuel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dyer, J. H., & Wujin, C. (2003). The Role of Trustworthiness in Reducing Transaction Costs and Improving Performance: Empirical Evidence from the United States, Japan and Korea. Organisational Science, 14(1), 57–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eichengreen, B. (2014). Secular Stagnation: A Review of the Issues. In Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures. Center for Economic Policy Research Press. Available at VOX CEPR Policy Portal https://voxeu.org/content/secular-stagnation-facts-causes-and-cures.

  • Gimpel, J. (1977). The Medieval Machine: The Industrial Revolution of the Middle Ages. New York: Penguin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordon, R. J. (2012). Is US Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds (Working Paper 18315). National Bureau of Economic Research. Available via NBER https://www.nber.org/papers/w18315.pdf.

  • Gordon, R. J. (2014). The Turtle’s Progress: Secular Stagnation Meets the Headwinds. In R. Baldwin & C. Teulings (Eds.), Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures. Center for Economic Policy Research Press. Available at VOX CEPR Policy Portal https://voxeu.org/article/turtle-s-progress-secular-stagnation-meets-headwinds.

  • Hansen, A. (1939). Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth. The American Economic Review, 29, 1–15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M. (1937). Some Economic Consequences of a Declining Population. The Galton Lecture, Eugenics Review, 29(1), 13–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kurzweil, R. (2006). The Singularity Is Near. London: Penguin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kutcher, E., Nottebohm, O., & Sprague, K. (2014). Grow Fast or Die Slow. McKinsey Global Institute. Available via https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/grow-fast-or-die-slow.

  • Lorenzi, J. H., & Berrebi, M. (2016). A Violent World. London: Palgrave.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenzi, J. H., & Bourlès, J. (1994). Le Choc du progrès technique. Paris: Economica.

    Google Scholar 

  • Madureira, A., den Hartog, F., Bouwman, H., & Baken, N. (2013). Empirical Validation of Metcalfe’s Law: How Internet Usage Patterns Have Changed Over Time. Information Economics and Policy, 25(4), 246–256.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mokyr, J. (2014). Secular Stagnation? Not in Your Life. In Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures. Center for Economic Policy Research Press. Available at VOX CEPR Policy Portal https://voxeu.org/content/secular-stagnation-facts-causes-and-cures in the United States.

  • Nordhaus, W. D. (2003). The Health of Nations: The Contribution of Improved Health to Living Standards. In K. M. Murphy & R. H. Topel (Eds.), Measuring the Gains from Medical Research: An Economic Approach (pp. 9–40). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Page, L. (2014). Where’s Google Going Next? Ted Conference. Available via https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_page_where_s_google_going_next.

  • Schermer, H., & Jary, D. (2013). The Poor. In Form and Dialectic in Georg Simmel’s Sociology. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Available via https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137276025_5#citeas.

  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1942). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (p. 83). New York: Harper and Brothers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1946). Capitalism. In R. V. Clemence (Ed.). (2003), Essays on Entrepreneurs, Innovations, Business Cycles and the Evolution of Capitalism (pp. 189–210). Piscataway, NJ: Transaction Publishers.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Simmel, G. (1911). Le domaine de la sociologie. In Sociology and Epistemology. Paris: PUF.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sweezy, P. (1942). The Theory of Capitalist Development. New York: Monthly Review Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Théry, E. (1901). Le Péril Jaune. Paris: Félix Juven.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varian, H. (2016). Intelligent Technology. Finance and Development, 53(3). Available via https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2016/09/varian.htm.

  • Voltaire. (1733). Letters on England. In The Collected Words of Voltaire: The Complete Works (Kindle ed.). New York: PergamonMedia.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jean-Hervé Lorenzi .

Appendix

Appendix

See Graphs 2.6, 2.7, 2.8.

Graph 2.6
figure 6

(Source OECD and the authors)

Total factor productivity, growth rates and development in base 100 from 1985: Italy

Graph 2.7
figure 7

(Source OECD and the authors)

Total factor productivity, growth rates and development in base 100 from 1985: Spain

Graph 2.8
figure 8

(Source OECD and the authors)

Total factor productivity, growth rates and development in base 100 from 1985: Japan

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 The Author(s)

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Lorenzi, JH., Berrebi, M. (2019). A Major Stagnation, But Not a Secular One. In: Progress or Freedom. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19594-6_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19594-6_2

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-19593-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-19594-6

  • eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics