Abstract
Issue: This is the Malthusian question in modern dress. Will population growth outpace the world’s ability to support the people who inhabit it? Beginning in the mid-1970s, three forces came together unexpectedly that changed the world for all time. The event was so important that historians of a hundred or a thousand years from now may look back and say that among all of the developments of society before and since this was the most crucial to the social order: These forces were the rise of feminism , availability of contraceptives that were cheap and effective, and family planning . Now that we have some measure of control over population size, we ask, “Should we limit the number of people in the world and if so, how and to what extent?”
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Notes
- 1.
A doubling rate of twenty-five years, incidentally, is still the norm for some poor countries including almost all countries in sub-Saharan Africa. But poverty and lack of access to contraceptives are not the only reasons for high national population growth rates. Other reasons include religious beliefs, migration, and culture. Consider these rates of growth in 2016: Bahrain: 3.8%; Qatar: 3.5%; Ireland: 2.0%; Pakistan : 2.0%; Israel : 2.0%.
- 2.
In the real world, “germline editing” has already begun in China , where in lab experiments, a defective gene was edited out in an embryo ; see: https://www.wired.com/story/crispr-base-editing-first-china?mbid=nl_082218_daily_list3_p1&CNDID=46249697. Retrieved August 23, 2018.
Public attitudes seem to be changing too: A Pew Research Center study found that in the USA 72% considered gene splicing appropriate to correct congenital defects in babies, but 80% were against using the technology to “make the baby more intelligent.” See: http://www.pewinternet.org/2018/07/26/public-views-of-gene-editing-for-babies-depend-on-how-it-would-be-used/pi_2018-07-26_gene-editing_0-01/; http://www.pewinternet.org/2018/07/26/public-views-of-gene-editing-for-babies-depend-on-how-it-would-be-used/pi_2018-07-26_gene-editing_0-01. Retrieved August 23, 2018.
References
Bohon, Dave. 2013. New Campaign in China Forcing IUDs, Sterilization of Women, Report Charges. New American, June. https://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/asia/item/15796-new-campaign-in-china-forcing-iuds-sterilization-on-women-report-charges. Retrieved October 31, 2017.
Gordon, Theodore, and Jerome Glenn. 1993. Issues in Creating the Millennium Project. Washington: The United Nations University.
United Nations. 2015. Trends in Contraceptive Use Worldwide. New York. http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/family/trendsContraceptiveUse2015Report.pdf. Retrieved October 30, 2017.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2017. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, custom data acquired.
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Gordon, T.J., Todorova, M. (2019). The Bounds of Humanity. In: Future Studies and Counterfactual Analysis . Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18437-7_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18437-7_4
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