Abstract
With the rapid development of mobile payment technology in China, people can use smartphone with some mobile payment apps (such as Alipay, WeChat pay and Apple pay etc.) to pay bills instead of paying cash. Some commercial platforms accumulated large transaction date from users’ smartphones. In the repeat consumption activities, the final few (or recency) consumption has a great impact on current consumption than long-ago consumption. But traditional HMM can’t deal with this recency effect in our repeat consumption case. This paper proposes a modified HMM method based on recency effect to predict the users’ repeat consumption behavior. We introduce a factor to represent the different recency effect of different time distance. An empirical study on real-world data sets shows encouraging results on our approach, especially on the consumer group which has the most uncertain consumption behavior.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Schiffman, L., O’Cass, A., Paladino, A., et al.: Consumer Behaviour. Pearson Higher Education, AU (2013)
Foxall, G.R.: Intentionality, symbol, and situation in the interpretation of consumer choice. Mark. Theory 13(1), 105–127 (2013)
Yilmaz, K.G., Belbag, S.: Prediction of consumer behavior regarding purchasing remanufactured products: a logistics regression model. Int. J. Bus. Soc. Res. 6(2), 01–10 (2016)
Zheng, B., Thompson, K., Lam, S.S., et al.: Customers’ behavior prediction using artificial neural network. In: Proceedings of the IIE Annual Conference on Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers (IISE), p. 700 (2013)
Štencl, M., Popelka, O., Šťastný, J.: Forecast of consumer behaviour based on neural networks models comparison. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 60, 437–442 (2012)
Li, D., Zhao, G., Wang, Z., et al.: A method of purchase prediction based on user behavior log. In: IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshop, pp. 1031–1039. IEEE Computer Society (2015)
Yi, Z., Wang, D., Hu, K., et al.: Purchase behavior prediction in m-commerce with an optimized sampling methods. In: IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshop, pp. 1085–1092. IEEE Computer Society (2015)
Fokin, D., Hagrot, J.: Constructing decision trees for user behavior prediction in the online consumer market (2016)
Benson, A.R., Kumar, R., Tomkins, A.: Modeling user consumption sequences. In: International Conference on World Wide Web International World Wide Web Conferences Steering Committee, pp. 519–529 (2016)
Lichtenthäler, C., Schmidt-Thieme, L.: Multinomial SVM item recommender for repeat-buying scenarios. In: Spiliopoulou, M., Schmidt-Thieme, L., Janning, R. (eds.) Data Analysis, Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery. SCDAKO, pp. 189–197. Springer, Cham (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01595-8_21
Chen, J., et al.: Recommendation for repeat consumption from user implicit feedback. IEEE Trans. Knowl. Data Eng. 28(11), 3083–3097 (2016)
Alvarez-Garcia, J.A., Ortega, J.A., Gonzalez-Abril, L., et al.: Trip destination prediction based on past GPS log using a Hidden Markov model. Expert Syst. Appl. 37(12), 8166–8171 (2016)
Gupta, A., Dhingra, B.: Stock market prediction using Hidden Markov Models. In: Engineering and Systems, pp. 1–4. IEEE (2012)
Raghavan, V., Ver Steeg, G., Galstyan, A., et al.: Coupled hidden markov models for user activity in social networks. In: Multimedia and Expo Workshops (ICMEW), pp. 1–6. IEEE (2013)
Si, H., Wang, Y., Yuan, J., et al.: Mobility prediction in cellular network using hidden markov model. In: 7th Consumer Communications and Networking Conference (CCNC), pp. 1–5. IEEE (2010)
Ridi, A., Zarkadis, N., Gisler, C., et al.: Duration models for activity recognition and prediction in buildings using Hidden Markov Models. In: IEEE International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics, pp. 1–10. IEEE (2015)
Mathew, W., Raposo, R., Martins, B.: Predicting future locations with hidden Markov models. In: ACM Conference on Ubiquitous Computing, pp. 911–918. ACM (2012)
Rabiner, L., Juang, B.: An introduction to hidden Markov models. IEEE ASSP Magazine 3(1), 4–16 (1986)
Rabiner, L.R.: A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition. Proc. IEEE 77(2), 257–286 (1989)
Tianchi big data contest. https://tianchi.aliyun.com/competition/information.htm?spm=5176.100067.5678.2.8cfDIU&raceId=231591
Acknowledgment
This work is supported by Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No. LY17F020008).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Zheng, Z., Zhou, Y., Sun, L. (2019). A Recency Effect Hidden Markov Model for Repeat Consumption Behavior Prediction. In: Li, S. (eds) Green, Pervasive, and Cloud Computing. GPC 2018. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 11204. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15093-8_31
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15093-8_31
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-15092-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-15093-8
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)