Abstract
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) has been highly utilized in short term electric load forecasting not just among aggregated consumed load but also in predicting the specified base, intermediate and peak loads. To ensure success in its predictive capability, every ANN model implementation should employ the appropriate training algorithm and activation function that will be suitable to the historical data that it is processing. This study conducted performance analysis of six models having different combination of training algorithms namely Quick Propagation, Resilient Algorithm and Back Propagation and activation functions namely Gaussian and Sigmoid. Electric load data preparation was conducted through data correction, Min-Max data normalization and clustering to identify the base, intermediate and peak loads. After determining the ANN models’ input, hidden and output neurons from its respective layers, the ANN model having the combination of Quick Propagation training algorithm and Gaussian activation function yielded the lowest MSE and MAPE values having 0.005700397 and 5.88% respectively. The day-ahead base, intermediate, and peak load forecasting model developed in this study has the potential to be implemented in order to suffice the need of electric power systems in predicting the necessary system loads for their economic decisions, power dispatching, system planning, and reliability evaluation.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Olagoke, M.D., Ayeni, A.A., Hambali, M.A.: Short term electric load forecasting using neural network and genetic algorithm. Int. J. Appl. Inf. Syst. 10(4), 22–28 (2016)
Bala, A., Yadav, N.K., Hooda, N.: Implementation of artificial neural network for short term load forecasting. Curr. Trends Technol. Sci. 3(4), 247–251 (2014)
Ortiz-Arroyo, D., Skov, M.K., Huynh, Q.: Accurate electricity load forecasting with artificial neural networks. In: Proceedings of International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation and International Conference on Intelligent Agents, Web Technologies and Internet Commerce. IEEE (2006)
Velasco, L.C.P., Granados, A.R.B., Ortega, J.M.A., Pagtalunan, K.V.D.: Performance analysis of artificial neural networks training algorithms and transfer functions for medium-term water consumption forecasting. Int. J. Adv. Comput. Sci. Appl. (IJACSA) 9(4) (2018)
Nieminem, P.: Multilayer Perceptron Training with Multiobjective Memetic Optimization. Jyväskylä University Printing House (2016)
Hush, D.: Classification with neural networks: a performance analysis. In: International Conference on Systems Engineering. IEEE (2002)
Cireşan, D.C., Meier, U., Gambardella, L.M., Schmidhuber, J.: Deep big multilayer perceptrons for digit recognition. In: Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, pp 581–598. Springer, Berlin (2012)
Sibi, P., Allwyn Jones, S., Siddarth, P.: Analysis of different activation functions using back propagation neural networks. J. Theor. Appl. Inf. Technol. 47(3), 1264–1268 (2013)
Velasco, L.C.P., Villezas, C.R., Palahang, P.N.C., Dagaang, J.A.A.: Next day electric load forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks. In: International Conference on Humanoid, Nanotechnology, Information Technology, Communication and Control, Environment and Management. IEEE (2016)
Abdulaal, A., Buitrago, J., Asfour, S.: Electric load pattern classification for demand-side management planning: a hybrid approach. In: Proceedings of the IASTED International Symposium Advances in Power and Energy Systems (2015)
Salimi-beni, A., Fotuhi-Firuzabad, M., Farrokhzad, D., Alemohammad, S.J.: A new approach to determine base, intermediate and peak-demand in an electric power system. In: Proceedings of International Conference on Power System Technology. IEEE (2006)
Velasco, L.C.P., Estoperez, N.R., Jayson, R.J.R., Sabijon, C.J.T., Sayles, V.C.: Day-ahead base, intermediate, and peak load forecasting using K-means and artificial neural networks. J. Adv. Comput. Sci. Appl. (IJACSA) 9(2), 62–67 (2018)
Grant, J., Eltoukhy, M., Asfour, S.: Short-term electrical peak demand forecasting in a large government building using artificial neural networks. Energies 2014(7), 1935–1953 (2014)
Panigrahi, S., Karali, Y., Behera, H.S.: Normalize time series and forecast using evolutionary neural network. Int. J. Eng. Res. Technol. 2(9) (2013)
Jayalakshmi, T., Santhakumaran, A.: Statistical normalization and back propagation for classification. Int. J. Comput. Theory Eng. 3(1) (2011)
Mustaffa, Z., Yusof, Y.: A comparison of normalization techniques in predicting dengue outbreak. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Business and Economics Research. IACSIT Press (2011)
Shalabi, L., Zyad, S., Al-Kasasbeh, B.: Data mining: a preprocessing engine. J. Comput. Sci. (Science Publications) 2(9) (2006)
Ramachandran, P., Senthil, R.: Locational marginal pricing approach to minimize congestion in restructured power market. J. Electr. Electron. Eng. Res. (Academic Journals) 2(6), 14–153 (2010)
Panchal, F.S., Panchal, M.: Review on methods of selecting number of hidden nodes in artificial neural network. Int. J. Comput. Sci. Mob. Comput. 3(11), 455–464 (2014)
Heaton, J.: Encog: Library of interchangeable machine learning models for Java and C#. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 15, 1243–1247 (2015)
Rodrigues, F., Duarte, F.J.F., Silva, V., Cordeiro, M.: Comparative analysis of clustering algorithms applied to load profiling. In: Proceedings of Machine Learning and Data Mining in Pattern Recognition, MLDM 2003 (2003)
Rashid, T.: Study of artificial neural networks for daily peak load forecasting. In: Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Information Technology (2005)
Hernández, L., Baladrón, C., Aguiar, J., Carro, B., Sánchez-Esguevillas, A.: Classification and clustering of electricity demand patterns in industrial parks. Energies 2012(5), 5215–5228 (2012)
Chaudhary, R., Patel, H.: A survey on backpropagation algorithm for neural networks. Int. J. Technol. Res. Eng. 2(7) (2015)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Velasco, L.C.P., Estoperez, N.R., Jayson, R.J.R., Sabijon, C.J.T., Sayles, V.C. (2020). Performance Analysis of Artificial Neural Networks Training Algorithms and Activation Functions in Day-Ahead Base, Intermediate, and Peak Load Forecasting. In: Arai, K., Bhatia, R. (eds) Advances in Information and Communication. FICC 2019. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 70. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12385-7_23
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12385-7_23
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-12384-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-12385-7
eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and RoboticsIntelligent Technologies and Robotics (R0)