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Mathematical Models for the Analysis of Destabilization Processes of the Socio-Political Situation in the Country Using the Methods of Non-violent Resistance

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Recent Research in Control Engineering and Decision Making (ICIT 2019)

Part of the book series: Studies in Systems, Decision and Control ((SSDC,volume 199))

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Abstract

The task of counteractions unfavorable combinations of events, deliberately organized with the aim of destabilizing the socio-political situation in the country using actions of non-violent resistance of the citizens. Herewith, the destabilization plan is representing in the form of a logical tree, and adverse combinations of events—in the form of its minimum cross sections. The probabilities of realization of the minimum cross sections is determined by solving the systems of Kolmogorov-Chapman differential equations. Counteracting efforts to destabilize the socio-political environment is to monitor these probabilities and take the necessary measures to reduce them.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Precision Mechanics and Control, Russian Academy of Sciences, 24 Rabochaya Str., Saratov, 410028, Russia

    Aleksey Bogomolov, Alexander Rezchikov, Vadim Kushnikov, Vladimir Ivaschenko, Elena Kushnikova & Vladimir Tverdokhlebov

  2. Yuri Gagarin State Technical University, 77 Politechnicheskaya Str., Saratov, 410054, Russia

    Vadim Kushnikov & Elena Kushnikova

  3. Saratov State University, 83 Astrakhanskaya Str., Saratov, 410012, Russia

    Aleksey Bogomolov, Alexander Rezchikov & Vadim Kushnikov

Authors
  1. Aleksey Bogomolov
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  2. Alexander Rezchikov
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  3. Vadim Kushnikov
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  4. Vladimir Ivaschenko
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  5. Elena Kushnikova
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  6. Vladimir Tverdokhlebov
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Aleksey Bogomolov .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Applied Information Technologies and Communication, Yuri Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov, Saratov, Russia

    Olga Dolinina

  2. Institute of Applied Information Technologies and Communication, Yuri Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov, Saratov, Russia

    Alexander Brovko

  3. Institute of Applied Information Technologies and Communication, Yuri Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov, Saratov, Russia

    Vitaly Pechenkin

  4. Institute of Applied Information Technologies and Communication, Yuri Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov, Saratov, Russia

    Alexey Lvov

  5. Department of Automation, Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk, Russia

    Vadim Zhmud

  6. Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA

    Vladik Kreinovich

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Bogomolov, A., Rezchikov, A., Kushnikov, V., Ivaschenko, V., Kushnikova, E., Tverdokhlebov, V. (2019). Mathematical Models for the Analysis of Destabilization Processes of the Socio-Political Situation in the Country Using the Methods of Non-violent Resistance. In: Dolinina, O., Brovko, A., Pechenkin, V., Lvov, A., Zhmud, V., Kreinovich, V. (eds) Recent Research in Control Engineering and Decision Making. ICIT 2019. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, vol 199. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12072-6_58

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