Modeling the Spatial Distribution of Rainfall in the Tangier Area (Northern Morocco)

Abstract

Climate change has become a subject of several studies for our country, especially the far north west of Morocco. This main aims of this work to interpolate the rainfall fields in the Tangier region taking into account the effect of the relief, based on the numerical Terrain model (DEM). To achieve its goals we propose using the method AURELHY (Analyse Utilisant le Relief pour les Bésoins de l’Hydrométéorologie), which allows, from the values of point precipitation their extrapolation to the points not measured Based on Geostatistics, the AURELHY interpolation technique has the advantage of taking into consideration the topography of the region considered according to several stages. The first of these was an integrated approach consists of the coding of the topography surrounding each rainfall station using the Python 3.4 software. The various altitudes are therefore shall be subject by analysis principal components, (ACP) via the R software. In order to identify the dominant trends of slopes for different own vectors. The residues resulting from multiple linear regression between own vectors, longitude, altitude and distance from the sea. Allowed us to make interpolation maps by Kriging of these residues. These intermediate maps were finally used to reconstruct the precipitation fields.

The temporal interval studied was subsequently placed in the context of climate change to identify the impact of this global phenomenon on the reduction of precipitation at the level of the region studied.