Abstract
Several authors have suggested that supplies for key non-renewable resources may soon cease to expand at the same rate as demand. Inevitably this would lead to some peak and then decline in production. This work describes the development and application of a fully dynamic model of the copper market. This model includes both a probabilistic simulator of future supply expansion based on published data on copper deposits and a novel model of copper demand that includes both short-term and long-term elasticity of demand—both due to self-price and aluminum price. Using this model in long-term simulations suggests significant copper reserve depletion would not be expected to occur in this century. The model predicts a time frame to significant depletion that is more than 50% further out in the future than previously reported results that did not include these effects.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Kelly TD, Matos GR (2018) Historical statistics for mineral and material commodities in the United States (2016 version): U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 140 https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/historical-statistics/ (Accessed 20 Oct 2018)
Graedel TE, Harper EM, Nassar NT, Reck BK (2015) On the materials basis of modern society. Proc Natl Acad Sci 112(20):6295–6300
Reck BK, Graedel TE (2012) Challenges in metal recycling. Science (80-.) 337(6095):690–695
Erdmann L, Graedel TE (2011) Criticality of non-fuel minerals: a review of major approaches and analyses. Environ Sci Technol 45(18):7620–7630
Aguirregabiria V, Luengo A (2016) A microeconometric dynamic structural model of copper mining decisions
Northey S, Mohr S, Mudd GM, Weng Z, Giurco D (2014) Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining. Resour Conserv Recycl 83:190–201
Glöser S, Soulier M, Tercero Espinoza LA (2013) Dynamic analysis of global copper flows. global stocks, postconsumer material flows, recycling indicators, and uncertainty evaluation. Environ Sci Technol 47(12):6564–6572
Glöser-Chahoud S, Hartwig J, Wheat ID, Faulstich M (2016) The cobweb theorem and delays in adjusting supply in metals’ markets. Syst Dyn Rev 32(3–4):279–308
Mosier D, Singer V, Donald A (2009) Volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits of the world: database and grade and tonnage models
Cox D, Lindsey D, Singer D, Diggles M (2003) Sediment-hosted copper deposits of the world: deposit models and database
Singer D, Berger V, Moring B (2005) Porphyry copper deposits of the world: database, map, and grade and tonnage models
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 The Minerals, Metals & Materials Society
About this paper
Cite this paper
Zhang, J., Swei, O., Roth, R., Kirchain, R. (2019). Exploring Drivers of Copper Supply and Demand Using a Dynamic Market Simulation. In: Gaustad, G., et al. REWAS 2019. The Minerals, Metals & Materials Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-10386-6_40
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-10386-6_40
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-10385-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-10386-6
eBook Packages: Chemistry and Materials ScienceChemistry and Material Science (R0)