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Risk Prediction and Sex Offending

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Sexually Violent Predators: A Clinical Science Handbook

Abstract

Accurately predicting the risk of future sexual offending posed by individuals is a key task within the criminal justice system, providing vital information to inform treatment planning and sentence management. In particular, risk prediction plays an important role in ensuring that a balance is struck between minimizing risk to the public and supporting self-improvement and change amongst individuals who have committed sexual offences. Although risk prediction is therefore widely utilized in criminal justice and rehabilitation settings, there are a number of theoretical and practical issues that are yet to be addressed regarding its use. These issues include the validity and generalizability of prediction tools, the indistinct nature of measured risk factors, and how to appropriately incorporate treatment change into the prediction of future behaviour. We hope that the discussion of these issues will prompt further thinking regarding the current role of risk prediction in treatment and sentence management and encourage further research to address these challenges.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Psychology, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Jacinta R. Cording & Sarah M. Beggs Christofferson

  2. School of Psychology, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand

    Tony Ward

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  1. Jacinta R. Cording
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  2. Tony Ward
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  3. Sarah M. Beggs Christofferson
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Nevada, Reno, NV, USA

    William T. O’Donohue

  2. Special Psychological Services, LLC, Bloomfield, NJ, USA

    Daniel S. Bromberg

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Cording, J.R., Ward, T., Beggs Christofferson, S.M. (2019). Risk Prediction and Sex Offending. In: O’Donohue, W.T., Bromberg, D.S. (eds) Sexually Violent Predators: A Clinical Science Handbook. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04696-5_14

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