Abstract
Environmental security refers to a range of security issues triggered by environmental factors such as climate change, resource shortages, demographic factors, environmental change, and non-sustainable practices. Water resources are a particularly problematic area because water is an essential resource for which there is no substitute, and the amount of fresh water is finite and not equitably distributed in a spatial sense. From a geopolitical perspective, the world’s largest river systems are shared by multiple states and the potential for conflict is high. However, historically water resource conflict has been resolved by cooperative means and states have relied on technology, trade, and diplomatic solutions. This research argues that the security landscape has changed profoundly, and the history of cooperative water-conflict resolution is no longer a reliable guide to the future. This paper suggests that continued peaceful resolution of interstate water conflicts is inconsistent with the realities of the emerging national security landscape: climate change is already affecting the distribution of water in many critical water basins, and the proliferation of failing states has reduced the potential for diplomatic resolutions. This paper examines linkages between environmental stress, regional instability, water availability, and conflict and uses the Middle East as a case study to highlight these points. The analysis suggests that the region is now more vulnerable to environmental stress and water-related conflict. Given these circumstances, it is plausible that we will witness a surge in three modes of conflict, driven by water demand: ethnic/racial warfare enabled by environmental stress and demographic trends; civil warfare prompted by environmental stress and economic collapse; and limited-scale interstate wars.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Allen T (1998) Watersheds problemsheds: explaining the absence of armed conflict over water in the Middle East. Middle East Rev Int Aff 2:49–51
Alpert PI, Krichak KO, Shafir H, Haim D, Osetinsky I (2008) Climatic trends to extremes employing regional modeling and statistical interpretation over the E. Mediterranean. Global Planet Change 63:163–170
Amery HA (2002) Water wars in the Middle East. Geogr J 168:313–323
Aquastat (2012) Main country database. The food and agricultural organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/dbases/index.stm. Accessed May 2012
Barnett TMP (2004) The Pentagon’s new map. G. P. Putnam and Sons, New York, p 435
Black E, Brayshaw DJ, Rambeau MC (2010) Past, present, and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations. Philos Trans R Soc 368:5173–5184
Butts KH (1997) The strategic importance of water. Parameters, Spring, pp 65–83
Butts KH (2010) Environmental security: a growing force in regional stability. In Galgano FA, Palka EJ (eds) Modern military geography. Routledge, New York, pp 54–64
Conca K (2006) Governing water. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, Cambridge, p 468
Dalby S (2002) Environmental security. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, p 247
Darwish A (1994) Water wars: the next major conflict in the Middle East: Middle East News. http://www.mideastnews.com/WaterWars.htm. Accessed Jan 2012
Diehl PF, Gleditsch NP (eds) (2001) Environmental conflict. Westview Press, Boulder, p 343
Fagan B (2011) Fresh water supplies are going to run out, so what can we do to make the taps keep running? The Independent, 30 June 2011. http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/fresh-water-supplies-are-going-to-run-out-so-what-can-we-do-to-make-the-taps-keep-running-2304481.html. Accessed April 2012
Galgano FA (2007) A geographic analysis of ungoverned spaces. Pennsylvania Geogr 44(2):67–90
Galgano FA, Krakowka A (2011) The environment’s influence on regional stability conflict. Pennsylvania Geogr 48:3–32
Gleick PH (ed) (1993a) Water in crisis. A guide to the world’s fresh water resources. Oxford University Press, New York, p 234
Gleick PH (1993b) Water and conflict. Int Secur 18:79–112
Gleick PH (ed) (1998) The world’s water, the biennial report on freshwater resources. Island Press, Washington, D.C, p 307
Gleick PH (ed) (2012) The world’s water, volume 7, the biennial report on freshwater resources. Island Press, Washington, D.C, p 159
Gray CS (2009) National security dilemmas: challenges and opportunities. Potomac Books, Inc., Washington, D.C., p 333
Hensel PR, Brochmann M (2007) Armed conflict over international rivers: the onset of militarization of river claims. http://www.paulhensel.org/Research/apsa08r.pdf. Accessed April 2012
Homer-Dixon TF 1991. On The Threshold: Environmental Change as Causes of Acute Conflict. International Security 16(2): 76–116
Homer-Dixon TF (1999) Environmental scarcity and violence. Princeton University Press, Princeton, p 253
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2008) Technical paper on climate change and water. IPCC Technical Paper VI. http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/. Accessed May 2012
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, summary for policy makers. http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/news.shtml. Accessed May 2012
Kaplan RD (2000) The Coming anarchy: shattering the dreams of the post-cold war. Random House, New York, p 201
Kaufmann D, Kraay A, Mastruzzi M (2003) Covernance matters iii: governance indicators for 1996–2002. The World Bank, World Bank Institute, Global Governance Department and Development Research Group, p 145
Kaufmann D, Kraay A, Mastruzzi M (2008) Governance matters vii: governance indicators for 1996–2007, Washington, DC, World Bank Research Paper no. 4654. The World Bank, World Bank Institute, Global Governance Department and Development Research Group, p 134
Kitoh A, Yatagai A, Alpert P (2008) First super-high resolution model prediction that the ancient “Fertile Crescent” will disappear this century. Jpn Soc Hydrol Water Resour Hydrol Res Lett 2:1–4
Klare MT (2001) The new geography of conflict. Foreign Aff 80:49–61
Klare MT (2002) Resource wars: the new landscape of global conflict. Henry Holt and Company, New York, p 289
Krichak SO, Alpert P (2005) Decadal trends in the East Atlantic—West Russian pattern and Mediterranean precipitation. Int J Climatol 25:183–192
Myers N (1989) Environment security. Foreign Policy 74:23–41
Obama BH (2010) National security strategy. The White House, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, p 60
Pearce F (2006) When the rivers run dry. Beacon Press, Boston, p 324
Postel SL, Wolf AT (2001) Dehydrating conflict: Foreign policy. 18 September 2001
PRB (Population Reference Bureau) (2011) 2011 world population data sheet, the world at 7Â billion. http://www/prb.org. Accessed Jan 2011
Ragab R, Prudhomme C (2000) Climate change and water resources management in the Southern Mediterranean and Middle East countries: The Second World Water Forum, pp 17–22, March 2000, The Hague
Rosenthal J (2004) New rules for war? Naval War Coll Rev 58:91–101
Sappenfield M (2007) Six places in the world where climate change could cause political turmoil. Christ Sci Monit 6 December 2007:14
SIWI (Stockholm International Water Insititute) (2009) Water resources in the Middle East. http://siwi.org. Accessed April 2012
Smith D, Vivekananda J (2007) A climate of conflict: London, International Alert, p 44. http://www.international-alert.org. Accessed May 2012
Soffer A (1999) Rivers of fire: the conflict over water in the Middle East. Rowman and Littlefield, London, p 303
Trondalen JM (2009) Climate changes, water security, and possible remedies for the Middle East: United Nations World Water Assessment Programme, Scientific Paper. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris, p 34
U.N. (United Nations) (1978) Register of international rivers. Pergamon Press, Oxford, p 138
U.N. (United Nations) (2009) Water in a changing world, United Nations world water development report 3. http://publishing.unesco.org/. Accessed May 2012
U.N. (United Nations) (2010) Human development trends index. http://hdr.undp.org/en/statitics/. Accessed Oct 2010
Weib M, Florke M, Menzel L, Alcamo J (2007) Model based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts. Adv Geosci 12:145–151
Zhang XB, Aguilar E, Sensoy S, Tonyan H, Tagiyeva U, Ahmed N, Kutaladze N, Rahimzadeh F, Taghipour A, Hantosh TH, Albert P, Semawi M, Ali MK, Al-Shabibi MHS, Al-Oulan Z, Zatari T, Khelet IA, Hamoud S, Sagir R, Demircan M, Eken M, Adiguzel M, Alexander L, Peterson TC, Wallis T (2005) Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J Geophys Res Atmospheres 110:213–256
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this paper
Cite this paper
Galgano, F. (2016). Environmental Security and Trans-Boundary Water Resources. In: McDonald, E., Bullard, T. (eds) Military Geosciences and Desert Warfare. Advances in Military Geosciences. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-3429-4_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-3429-4_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4939-3427-0
Online ISBN: 978-1-4939-3429-4
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)