Abstract
Ann Coulter could not stop worrying about the lump in her breast. No matter how hard she tried to put it out of her mind, her fear kept returning. Even though she knew that most lumps are benign, her first thought was that she had cancer. Ann’s doctor, Arlene Greenfield, reassured her that it was probably only a benign cyst: “Only 10% of movable, regularly shaped, lumps turn out to be cancer.” Nevertheless, Dr. Greenfield ordered a mammogram “just to be sure.”
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Alvey, P. (1983, December). The problems of designing a medical expert system. Paper presented at the Expert Systems Conference, Cambridge, U.K.
Arkes, H. R. (1981). Impediments to accurate clinical judgment and possible ways to minimize theirimpact. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 49, 323–330.
Arkes, H. R., Guilmette, T. J., Faust, D., & Hart, K. (1988). Eliminating the hindsight bias. Journal of Applied Psychology, 73, 305–307.
Arkes, H. R., Wortmann, R. L., Saville, P. D., & Harkness, A. R. (1981). Hindsight bias amongphysicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses. Journal of Applied Psychology, 66, 568–575.
Beyth-Marom, R., & Fischhoff, B. (1983). Diagnosticity and pseudodiagnosticity. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 1185–1195.
Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1969). Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid diagnostic signs. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 74, 271–287.
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. (1984). Discount functions and the measurement of patient values: Women’s decisions during childbirth. Medical Decision Making, 4, 41–48.
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., Beck, D. E., Christensen-Szalanski, C. M., & Koepsell, T. D. (1983). The effect of journal coverage on physician’s perception of risk. Journal of Applied Psychology, 68, 278–284.
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Bushyhead, J. B. (1983). Physicians’ use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting. Journal of Experimental Psychology (Human Perception), 7, 928–935.
Dawes, R. M. (1986). Representative thinking in clinical judgment. Clinical Psychology Review, 6, 425–441.
Dawes, R. M. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
Detmer, D. E., Fryback, D. G., & Gassner, K. (1978). Heuristics and biases in medical decisionmaking. Journal of Medical Education, 53, 682–683.
Eddy, D. M. (1982). Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases(pp. 249–267). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
Edwards, W. (1983). Human cognitive abilities, representativeness, and ground rules for research. In P. Humphreys, O. Svenson, & A. Vari (Eds.), Analyzing and aiding decision processes (pp. 507–513). Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Elstein, A. S. (1984). Symposium on teaching applications (audiotape). Presented at the Judgment and Decision Making Meeting, San Antonio, Texas.
Eraker, S. A., & Sox, H. C. (1981). Assessment of patients’ preferences for therapeutic outcomes. Medical Decision Making, 1, 29–39.
Evans, J. St. B. T. (1989). Some causes of bias in expert opinion. The Psychologist, 2, 112–113.
Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288–299.
Fischhoff, B. (1977). Perceived informativeness of facts. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 349–358.
Fischhoff, B. (1982). For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under certainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 335–354). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
Friedlander, M. L., & Stockman, S. J. (1983). Anchoring and publicity effects in clinical judgment. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 39, 637–643.
Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond “heuristics and biases.” In W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.), European Review of Social Psychology: Vol. 2 (pp. 83–115). London: Wiley.
Gigerenzer, G., Swijtink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, & Krüger, L. (1989). The empire of chance: How probability changed science and everyday life. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
Glasziou, P. P., & Schwartz, S. (1991). Clinical decision analysis. The Medical Journal of Australia, 154, 105–110.
Gruppen, L. D., Wolf, F. M., & Billi, J. E. (1991). Information gathering and integration as sources of error in diagnostic decision making. Medical Decision Making, 11, 233–239.
Hammond, K. R. (1987). Toward a unified approach to the study of expert judgment. In J. Mumpower, L. D. Phillips, O. Renn, & V. R. R. Uppuluri (Eds.), Expert judgments and expert systems (pp. 1–16). Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
Hayes-Roth, F., Waterman, D. A., & Lenat, D. B. (1983). An overview of expert systems. In E. Hayes-Roth, D. A. Waterman, & D. B. Lenat (Eds.), Building expert systems (pp. 3–29). Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Heller, R. F., Saltzstein, H. D., & Caspe, W. B. (1992). Heuristics in medical and non-medical decision-making. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 44A, 211–235.
Hoch, S. J. (1984). Availability and interference in predictive judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 10, 649–662.
Jungerman, H. (1983). Two camps of rationality. In R. W. Scholz (Ed.), Decision making under uncertainty (pp. 63–86). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430–454.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237–251.
Kassirer, J. P., Moskowitz, A. J., Lau, J., & Pauker, S. G. (1987). Decision analysis: A progress report. Annals of Internal Medicine, 106, 275–291.
Kern, L., & Doherty, M. E. (1982). “Pseudodiagnosticity” in an idealized medical problem solving environment. Journal of Medical Education, 57, 100–104.
Kleinmuntz, B. (1984). The scientific study of clinical judgment in psychology and medicine. Clinical Psychology Review, 4, 111–126.
Kleinmuntz, B., & Elstein, A. S. (1987). Computer modeling of clinical judgment. CRC Critical Reviews in Medical Informatics, 1, 209–228.
Kozielecki, J. (1981). Psychological decision theory. Warsaw: PWN-Polish Scientific Publishers.
Lanyon, R. I. (1987). The validity of computer-based personality assessment products: recommendations for the future. Computers in Human Behavior, 3, 225–238.
Lindberg, G., & Feyno, G. (1987). Algorithmic diagnosis of acute appendicitis using Bayes’ theorem and logistic regression. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Philadelphia.
Macartney, F. J. (1988). Diagnostic logic. In C. Phillips (Ed.), Logic in medicine. London: British Medical Journal.
McNeil, B. J., Pauker, S. G., Sox, H. E., & Tversky, A. (1982). On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies. New England Journal of Medicine, 306, 1259–1262.
Meehl, P. E. (1954). Clinical versus statistical prediction: A theoretical analysis and review of the evidence. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Oskamp, S. (1965). Overconfidence in case-study judgments. Journal of Consulting Psychology, 29, 261–265.
Poses, R., & Anthony, M. (1991). Availability, wishful thinking, and physicians’ diagnostic judgments for patients with suspected bacteremia. Medical Decision Making, 11, 159–168.
Poses, R., Cebul, R. D., Collins, M., & Fager, S. S. (1985). The accuracy of experienced physicians’ probability estimates for patients with sore throats. Journal of the American Medical Association, 254, 925–929.
Rock, D. L., Bransford, J. D., Maisto, S. A., & Morey, L. (1987). The study of clinical judgment: An ecological approach. Clinical Psychology Review, 7, 645–661.
Schwartz, S. (1991). Clinical decision making. In P. Martin (Ed.), Handbook of behavior therapy and psychological sciences: An integrative approach. New York: Pergamon.
Schwartz, S., & Griffin, T. (1986). Medical thinking: The psychology of medical judgment and decision making. New York: Springer-Verlag.
Schwartz, S., Griffin, T., & Fox, J. (1989). Clinical expert systems versus linear models: Do we have to choose? Behavioral Science, 34, 305–311.
Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man: Social and rational. New York: Wiley.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1979). Rating the risks. Environment, 21, 14–20, 36–39.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., & Lichtenstein, S. (1982). Facts versus fears: Understanding perceived risk. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
Spiegelhalter, D., & Knill-Jones, R. (1984). Statistical and knowledge-based approaches to clinical support systems with an application in gastroenterology. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 147, 35–77.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 4, 207–232.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453–458.
Wallsten, T. S. (1983). The theoretical status of judgment heuristics. In R. W. Scholz (Ed.), Decision making under uncertainty (pp. 21–37). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Wolf, F. M., Gruppen, L. D., & Billi, J. E. (1985). Differential diagnosis and the competing hypotheses heuristic: A practical approach to judgment under uncertainty and Bayesian probability. Journal of the American Medical Association, 253, 2858–2862.
Yates, J. F. (1990). Judgment and decision making. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Schwartz, S. (1994). Heuristics and Biases in Medical Judgment and Decision Making. In: Heath, L., et al. Applications of Heuristics and Biases to Social Issues. Social Psychological Applications to Social Issues, vol 3. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-9238-6_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-9238-6_4
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4757-9240-9
Online ISBN: 978-1-4757-9238-6
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive