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Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis — A Sulfur Air Pollution Example

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Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application V

Part of the book series: NATO · Challenges of Modern Society ((NATS,volume 10))

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Abstract

Expert judgments expressed as subjective probability distributions provide an appropriate means of incorporating technical uncertainty in some quantitative policy studies. Judgments and distributions obtained from several experts allow one to explore the extent to which the conclusions reached in such a study depend on which expert one talks to. For the case of sulfur air pollution from coal-fired power plants, estimates of sulfur mass balance as a function of plume flight time are shown to vary little across the range of opinions of leading atmospheric scientists while estimates of possible health impacts are shown to vary widely across the range of opinions of leading scientists in air pollution health effects.

This paper is reproduced with permission from Risk Analysis, 4, pp. 201 216, 1984.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departments of Engineering and Public Policy and of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA

    M. Granger Morgan

  2. Biomedical and Environmental Assessment Division, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, 11973, USA

    Samuel C. Morris

  3. Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA

    Max Henrion

  4. Decision Focus, Inc., Carnegie-Mellon University, Los Altos, CA, 94022, USA

    Deborah A. L. Amaral

  5. EBASCO, Lyndhurst, NJ, 07071, USA

    William R. Rish

  6. Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie-Mellon University, USA

    William R. Rish

Authors
  1. M. Granger Morgan
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  2. Samuel C. Morris
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  3. Max Henrion
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  4. Deborah A. L. Amaral
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  5. William R. Rish
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Prime Minister’s Office for Science Policy, Brussels, Belgium

    C. De Wispelaere

  2. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA

    Francis A. Schiermeier

  3. Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri, USA

    Noor V. Gillani

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© 1986 Springer Science+Business Media New York

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Morgan, M.G., Morris, S.C., Henrion, M., Amaral, D.A.L., Rish, W.R. (1986). Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis — A Sulfur Air Pollution Example. In: De Wispelaere, C., Schiermeier, F.A., Gillani, N.V. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application V. NATO · Challenges of Modern Society, vol 10. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-9125-9_5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-9125-9_5

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4757-9127-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4757-9125-9

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