Abstract
On the face of it, it would seem that agricultural technology might be thought of and modeled in the same way we would other agricultural inputs. As with any other productive input, such as labor, we can think of a derived demand for a particular technology that changes with output price, technology price, and the technology’s marginal product. So, why devote a separate chapter to technology? Webster’s New American Dictionary (1995) defines technology as “a manner of accomplishing a task using special knowledge of a mechanical or scientific subject.” There are two parts of this definition that support the tendency to differentiate a new technology from other agricultural inputs or older technologies: “special knowledge” and “scientific.” Special knowledge implies an initial period where the knowledge has yet to be acquired. This period may be characterized by uncertainty about how the technology works and how to apply it in a particular situation. As the special knowledge is acquired, experimentation and learning take place. The special knowledge may not be applicable to any other manner of accomplishing the task, so that if a newer technology is introduced, the learning must take place again. This implies an initial opportunity cost of adopting a new technology that is higher than using an older, conventional input. The “scientific” part of the definition, especially in the case of agricultural technologies, implies that the development of the technology probably takes place off the farm. It may take some time between the technology development and dissemination of sufficient information about it to be seriously considered by the farmer. Ultimate usefulness of the technology on the farm depends on its applicability to the unique growing conditions and other characteristics of the farm and the farmer. Again, this implies some additional level of initial uncertainty. A useful distinction, then, between conventional agricultural inputs and technology might be the degree of “newness” and special knowledge requirements of the input or production technique. Therefore, we leave aside conventional input choices and land allocation to different crops (except newly developed cultivars or varieties).
We thank Mitch Renkow and the participants in the SERA-IEG 31 annual meeting at Gulf Shores, Alabama (especially Paul Mitchell), for valuable comments and suggestions. We accept responsibility for any remaining errors.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Abel, A., and J. Eberly. 1994. “A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty.” The American Economic Review 84: 1369–1384.
Alexander, C., J. Fernandez-Cornejo, and R. Goodhue. 2000. “Determination of GMO Use: A Survey of Iowa Corn-Soybean Farmer’s Acreage Allocation.” In R. Evenson, L. Paganetto, V. Santaniello, P.L. Scandizzo, and D. Zilberman, eds., Fourth International Conference on the Economics of Agricultural Biotechnology. Rome, Italy: International Consortium on Agricultural Biotechnology Research, Tor Vergata University.
Anderson, J., and P. Hazell (eds). 1989. Variability in Grain Yields. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Antle, J. 1988. Pesticide Policy, Production Risk and Producer Welfare. Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future.
Antle, J., and S. Hatchett. 1986. “Dynamic Input Decisions in Econometric Production Models.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68: 937–949.
Arrow, K., and A. Fisher. 1974. “Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty and Irreversibility.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 88: 312–319.
Barham, B., and J.-P. Chavas. 1997. “Sunk Costs and Resource Mobility: Implications for Economic and Policy Analysis.” Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics Staff Paper Series No. 410, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Bellman, R. 1961. Adaptive Control Processes: A Guided Tour. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Besley, T., and A. Case. 1993. “Modeling Technology Adoption in Developing Countries.” A.E.R. Papers and Proceedings 83: 396–402.
Black, F., and M. Scholes. 1973. “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities.” Journal of Political Economy 81: 637–659.
Burrows, T. 1983. “Pesticide Demand and Integrated Pest Management: A Limited Dependent Variable Analysis.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 65: 806–810.
Burt, O., W. Koo, and N. Dudley. 1980. “Optimal Stochastic Control of U.S. Wheat Stocks and Exports.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 62: 172–187.
Byerlee, D. 1996. “Modern Varieties, Productivity, and Sustainability: Recent Experience and Emerging Challenges.” World Development 24: 697–718.
Byerlee, D., and E. Hesse de Polanco. 1986. “Farmers’ Stepwise Adoption of Technology Packages: Evidence from the Mexico Altiplano.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68: 519–527.
Cameron, L. 1999. “The Importance of Learning in the Adoption of High-Yielding Variety Seeds.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81: 83–94.
Carlson, G. 1970. “A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Crop Disease Prediction and Control.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 52: 216–223.
Carlson, G. 1979. “The Role of Pesticides in Stabilizing Agricultural Production.” In J. Sheets and D. Pimentel, eds., Pesticides: Contemporary Roles in Agriculture, Health and the Environment. Clifton, NJ: Humana Press.
Carlson, G. 1984. “Risk Reducing Inputs Related to Agricultural Pests.” In Risk Analysis of Agricultural Firms: Concepts, Information Requirements and Policy Issues,Proc. Regional Research Project S-180, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL.
Carlson, G., and C. Main. 1976. “Economics of Disease Loss Management.” Annual Review of Phytopathology 14: 381–403.
Carlson, G., and M. Wetzstein. 1993. “Pesticides and Pest Management.” In G. Carlson, D. Zilberman, and J. Miranowski, eds., Agricultural and Environmental Resource Economics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Chavas, J.-P. 1994. “Production and Investment Decisions.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76: 114–127.
Cochran, M., L. Robinson, and W. Lodwick. 1985. “Imposing the Efficiency of Stochastic Dominance Techniques Using Convex Set Stochastic Dominance.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 67: 289–295.
Darr, D., and W. Chen. 2000. “Estimating Adoption of GMO Soybeans and Corn: A Case Study of Ohio, U.S.A.” In R. Evenson, L. Paganetto, V. Santaniello, P.L. Scandizzo, and D. Zilberman, eds., Fourth International Conference on the Economics of Agricultural Biotechnology. Rome, Italy: International Consortium on Agricultural Biotechnology Research, Tor Vergata University.
Demers, M. 1991. “Investment Under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time.” The Review of Economic Studies 58: 333–350.
Dixit, A., and R. Pindyck. 1994. Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Dixon, R. 1980. “Hybrid Corn Revisited.” Econometrica 48: 1451–1461.
Ellison, G., and D. Fudenberg. 1993. “Rules of Thumb for Social Learning.” Journal of Political Economy 101: 612–643.
Evenson, R., W. Lesser, V. Santaniello, and D. Zilberman (eds.). 1999. In R. Evenson, L. Paganetto, V. Santaniello, P.L. Scandizzo, and D. Zilberman, eds., The Shape of the Coming Agricultural Biology Transformation: Strategic Investment and Policy Approaches from an Economic Perspective. Rome, Italy: International Consortium on Agricultural Biotechnology Research, Tor Vergata University.
Evenson, R., L. Paganetto, V. Santaniello, P.L. Scandizzo, and D. Zilberman (eds). 2000. Fourth International Conference on the Economics of Agricultural Biotechnology. Rome, Italy: International Consortium on Agricultural Biotechnology Research, Tor Vergata University.
Feder, G. 1979. “Pesticides, Information and Pest Management Under Uncertainty.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61: 97–103.
Feder, G. 1980. “Farm Size, Risk Aversion and the Adoption of New Technology Under Uncertainty.” Oxford Economic Papers 32: 263–283.
Feder, G. 1982. “Adoption of Interrelated Agricultural Innovations: Complementarity and the Impacts of Risk, Scale and Credit.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 64: 94–101
Feder, G., R.E. Just, and D. Zilberman. 1985. “Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 33: 225–298.
Feder, G., and G. O’Mara. 1981. “Farm Size and the Adoption of Green Revolution Technologies.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 30: 59–76.
Feder, G., and G. O’Mara. 1982. “On Information and Innovation Diffusion: A Bayesian Approach.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 64: 145–147.
Feder, G., and R. Slade. 1984. “The Acquisition of Information and the Adoption of New Technology.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66: 312–320.
Fernandez-Cornejo, J.,S. Jans, and M. Smith. 1998. “Issues in the Economics of Pesticide Use in Agriculture: A Review of the Empirical Evidence.” Review of Agricultural Economics 20: 462–488.
Fisher, A., A. Arnold, and M. Gibbs. 1996. “Information and Speed of Innovation Adoption.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78: 1073–1081.
Flinn, J., and D. Garrity. 1989. “Yield Stability and Modern Rice Technology.” In J. Anderson and P. Hazell, eds., Variability in Grain Yields. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Foster, A., and M. Rosenzweig. 1995. “Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture.” Journal of Political Economy 103: 1176–1209
Griliches, Z. 1957. “Hybrid Corn: An Exploration Into the Economics of Technical Change.” Econometrica 25: 501–525.
Hall, D. 1977. “The Profitability of Integrated Pest Management: Case Studies of Cotton and Citrus in the San Joaquin Valley.” Bulletin of the Entomological Society of America 23: 267–274.
Hazell, P. 1984. “Sources of Increased Instability in Indian and U.S. Cereal Production.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66: 302–311.
Heisey, P., M. Smale, D. Byerlee, and E. Souza. 1997. “Wheat Rusts and the Costs of Genetic Diversity in the Punjab of Pakistan.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79: 726–737.
Henry, C. 1974. “Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The `Irreversibility Effect’.” The American Economic Review 64: 1006–1012.
Herdt, R., L. Castillo, and S. Jayasuriya. 1984. “The Economics of Insect Control on Rice in the Philippines.” In Judicious and Efficient Use of Insecticides in Rice. Los Banos, Philippines: International Rice Research Institute.
Hertzler, G. 1991. “Dynamic Decisions Under Risk: Applications of the Ito Stochastic Control in Agriculture.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73: 1126–1137.
Hyde, J., M.A. Martin, P.V. Preckel, and C.R. Edwards. 1999. “The Economics of Bt Corn: Valving Protection From the European Corn Borer.” Review of Agricultural Economics 21: 442–454.
Hildebrant, P. 1960. “The Economic Theory of the Use of Pesticides, Part II: Uncertainty.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 14: 52–61.
Horowitz, J. and E. Lichtenberg. 1993. “Insurance, Moral Hazard and Chemical Use in Agriculture.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 75: 926–935.
Horowitz, J. and E. Lichtenberg. 1994. “Risk-Reducing and Risk-Increasing Effects of Pesticides.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 45: 82–89.
Hubbell, B., M. Marra, and G. Carlson. 2000. “Estimating the Demand for a New Technology: Bt Cotton and Insecticide Policies.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 82: 118–132.
Johnson, M., and E. Pasour, Jr. 1981. “An Opportunity Cost View of Fixed Asset Theory and the Overproduction Trap.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 63: 1–7.
Johnson, G., and C. Quance. 1972. The Overproduction Trap in U.S. Agriculture. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Just, R., and R. Pope. 1979. “Production Function Estimation and Related Risk Considerations.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61: 276–284.
Just, R., and D. Zilberman. 1983. “Stochastic Structure, Farm Size, and Technology Adoption in Developing Countries.” Oxford Economics Papers 35: 307–328.
Knudson, M. 1991. “Incorporating Technological Change in Diffusion Models.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73: 724–733.
Lazarus, W., and E. Swanson. 1983. “Insecticide Use and Crop Rotation Under Risk: Rootworm Control in Corn.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 65: 738–747.
Leathers, H., and J. Quiggin. 1991. “Interaction Between Agricultural and Resource Policy: The Importance of Attitudes Toward Risk.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73: 757–764.
Leathers, H., and M. Smale. 1991. “A Bayesian Approach to Explaining Sequential Adoption of Components of a Technical Package.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73: 734–742.
Lindner, R., A. Fischer, and P. Pardey. 1979. “The Time to Adoption.” Economics Letters 2: 187–190.
Lindner, R., P. Pardey, and F. Jarrett. 1982. “Distance to Information Source and the Time Lag to Early Adoption of Trace Elements Fertilizers.” Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 26: 98–113.
Marra, M. 2001. Farm Level Benefits of Transgenic Crops: A Critical Review of the Evidence to Date. IFPRI Report. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy and Research Institute. In press.
Marra, M., and G. Carlson. 1987. “The Role of Farm Size and Resource Constraints in the Choice Between Risky Technologies.” Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 12: 109–118.
Marra, M., B. Hubbell, and G. Carlson. 2001. “Information Quality, Technology Depreciation, and Bt Cotton Adoption in the Southeast.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. In press.
Merton, R. 1973. “The Theory of Rational Option Pricing.” Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 4: 141–183.
Moffitt, J., L. Fansworth, R. Zavaleta, and M. Kogan. 1986. “Economic Impact of Public Pest Information: Soybean Insect Forecasts in Illinois.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68: 274–279.
Mundlak, Y. 2000. Agriculture and Economics Growth: Theory and Measurement. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Musser, W., B. Tew, and J. Epperson. 1981. “An Economic Examination of an Integrated Pest Management Production System with a Contrast Between E-V and Stochastic Dominance Analysis.” Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 13: 199–124.
Pannell, D. 1991. “Pests and Pesticides, Risk and Risk Aversion.” Agricultural Economics 5: 361–383.
Pannell, D., B. Malcolm, and R. Kingwell. 2000. “Are We Risking Too Much? Perspectives on Risk in Farm Modelling.” Agricultural Economics 23: 69–78.
Perrin, R., and D. Winkleman. 1976. “Impediments to Technical Progress on Small Versus Large Farms. ” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 58: 888–894.
Pietola, K., and R. Myers. 2000. “Investment Under Uncertainty and Dynamic Adjustment in the Finnish Pork Industry.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 82: 956–967.
Pingali, P., and G. Carlson. 1985. “Human Capital, Adjustments in Subjective Probabilities, and the Demand for Pest Controls.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 67: 853–861.
Price, J., and M. Wetzstein. 1999. “Irreversible Investment Decisions in Perennial Crops with Yield and Price Uncertainty.” Uncertainty Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 24: 173–185.
Purvis, A., W. Boggess, C. Moss, and J. Holt. 1995. “Technology Adoption Decisions Under Irreversibility and Uncertainty: An Ex Ante Approach.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77: 541–551.
Rahm, M., and W. Huffman. 1984. “The Adoption of Reduced Tillage: The Role of Human Capital and Other Variables.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66: 405–413.
Renkow, M. 1993. “Differential Technology Adoption and Income Distribution in Pakistan: Implications for Research Resource Allocation.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 75: 33–43.
Richards, T. 1996. “Economic Hysteresis and the Effects of Output Regulation.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 21: 1–17.
Rogers, E. 1995. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: The Free Press (Macmillan & Co.). Rosenberg, N. 1976. “On Technological Expectations.” Economics Journal 86: 523–535.
Ruttan, V. 1996. “What Happened to Technology Adoption-Diffusion Research?” Sociologia Ruralis 36: 51–73.
Saha, A., H. Love, and R. Schwart. 1994. “Adoption of Emerging Technologies Under Output Uncertainty.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76: 836–846.
Samuelson, P. 1964. “Tax Deductibility of Economic Depreciation to Insure Invariant Valuation.” Journal of Political Economy 72: 571–573.
Santaniello, V., R. Evenson, D. Zilberman, and G. Carlson (eds.). 2000. Agriculture and Intellectual Property Rights. New York: CABI Publishing.
Smale, M., J. Hartell, P. Heisey, and B. Senaver. 1998. “The Contribution of Genetic Resources and Diversity to Wheat Production in the Punjab of Pakistan.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80: 482–493.
Smale, M., R. Just, and H. Leathers. 1994. “Land Allocation in HYV Adoption Models: An Investigation of Alternative Explanations.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76: 535–546.
Smith, V., and B. Goodwin. 1996. “Crop Insurance, Moral Hazard, and Agricultural Chemical Use.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78: 428–438.
Stoneman, P. 1981. “Intra-Firm Diffusion, Bayesian Learning and Profitability.” Economics Journal 91: 375–388.
Swinton, S., and R. King. 1994. “The Value of Information in a Dynamic Setting: Case of Weed Control.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76: 36–46.
Taylor, C., and H. Talpaz. 1979. “Approximately Optimal Carryover Levels for Wheat in the United States.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61: 32–40.
Traxler, G., and J. Falck-Zepeda, J. Ortz-Monasterio, and K. Sayre. 1995. “Production Risk and the Evolution of Varietal Technology.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77: 1–7.
Tsur, Y., M. Sternberg, and E. Hockman. 1990. “Dynamic Modeling of Innovation Process Adoption with Risk Aversion and Learning.” Oxford Economics Papers 42: 336–355.
Tsur, Y., M. Sternberg, and E. Hockman. 1990. Webster’s New American Dictionary. 1995. New York: Merriam-Webster, Inc.
Woo, B., and B. Wright. 2000. “The Optimal Timing of Evaluation of Genebank Accessions and the Effects of Biotechnology.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 82: 797–811.
Zacharias, T., and A. Grube. 1986. “Integrated Pest Management Strategies for Approximately Optimal Control of Corn Rootworm and Soybean Cyst Nemotode.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68: 704–715.
Zhao, J. 2000. Information Externalities and Strategic Delay in Technology Adoption and Diffusion. Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, Iowa State University.
Zhao, J., and D. Zilberman. 1999. “Irreversibility and Restoration in Natural Resource Development.” Oxford Economics Papers 51: 559–573.
Zilberman, D., M. Wetzstein, and M. Marra. 1993. Economics of Nonrenewable and Renewable Resources. In G. Carlson, D. Zilberman, and J. Miranowski, eds., Agricultural Resource and Environmental Economics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2002 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Marra, M.C., Carlson, G.A. (2002). Agricultural Technology and Risk. In: Just, R.E., Pope, R.D. (eds) A Comprehensive Assessment of the Role of Risk in U.S. Agriculture. Natural Resource Management and Policy, vol 23. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3583-3_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3583-3_15
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4419-4924-0
Online ISBN: 978-1-4757-3583-3
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive