Abstract
We discuss a model for the occurrence of AIDS cases that incorporates uncertainty due to the HIV infection process, incubation times, and delays in the reporting of AIDS cases. The analysis is based on AIDS cases diagnosed and reported by a given time, and provides standard errors for estimates and predictions that recognize the different sources of uncertainty. The approach is illustrated on U.S. AIDS cases reported to the end of 1989.
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Lawless, J., Sun, J. (1992). A Comprehensive Back-Calculation Framework for the Estimation and Prediction of AIDS Cases. In: Jewell, N.P., Dietz, K., Farewell, V.T. (eds) AIDS Epidemiology. Birkhäuser, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-1229-2_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-1229-2_4
Publisher Name: Birkhäuser, Boston, MA
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