Spatial Economic Modelling of Megathrust Earthquake in Japan

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-ix

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2. A Spatial and Economic Analysis of Megathrust Earthquakes

   • Suminori Tokunaga

   Pages 1-9

3. Impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 11-11

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   2. Economic Analysis of Regional Renewal and Recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake

      • Suminori Tokunaga, Maria Ikegawa, Mitsuru Okiyama

      Pages 13-63

   3. Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on Production Loss Using an Inter-Regional Social Accounting Matrix

      • Mitsuru Okiyama

      Pages 65-94

   4. Analysis of Supply Chain Disruptions from the Great East Japan Earthquake in the Automotive Industry and Electronic Parts/Devices

      • Suminori Tokunaga, Mitsuru Okiyama

      Pages 95-119

4. Reconstruction and Regional Renewal After the Great East Japan Earthquake

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 121-121

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   2. Economic Analysis of Fiscal Measures for Reconstructing the Tohoku Region After the Great East Japan Earthquake: Using a Dynamic Two-Regional CGE Model

      • Mitsuru Okiyama, Suminori Tokunaga

      Pages 123-161

   3. Measuring Economic Gains from New Food and Automobile Industry Clusters with Coagglomeration in the Tohoku Region

      • Suminori Tokunaga, Mitsuru Okiyama

      Pages 163-192

   4. Production Recovery of Fishery and Seafood Manufacturing After the Disaster in Japan: Economic Evaluation Using Dynamic CGE Model

      • Yuko Akune

      Pages 193-220

   5. Economic Ripple Effects of a Biogas Electricity Power Plant as Part of Earthquake Disaster Restoration in the Coastal Area of Iwate Prefecture

      • Yoji Kunimitsu

      Pages 221-233

5. Evaluating Regional Impacts of Megathrust Earthquakes and Tsunamis

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 235-235

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   2. Economic Impacts of Population Decline Due to the Great East Japan Earthquake: An Inter-regional Input–Output Approach

      • Yoshifumi Ishikawa

      Pages 237-257

   3. An NEG Analysis of Megathrust Earthquakes in Japan

      • Ryusuke Ihara

      Pages 259-287

   4. Evaluating Dynamic, Regional, and Economic Impacts of the Tokai Earthquake

      • Hiroyuki Shibusawa

      Pages 289-311

   5. Reconstruction and Rehabilitation After Large-Scale Natural Disasters: Lessons from the Indian Ocean Tsunami in Aceh and Nias, Indonesia

      • Budy P. Resosudarmo

      Pages 313-334

6. Back Matter

   Pages 335-363

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This book presents an evaluation of the impacts of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis on regional economies and subsequent reconstruction, as well as regional revitalization by the spatial economic model and dynamic macro and regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The cases examined are the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Indian Ocean Tsunami. The study constructs three models of these megathrust earthquakes and the associated tsunami. In the first model, the regional CGE model is proposed with a database comprising the two-regional social accounting matrix for 2005 between the region comprising four disaster-affected prefectures of Japan and the non-disaster region. For the recursive dynamic regional CGE model, the model that expanded and improved the dynamic two-regional CGE model to reflect the incomplete employment conditions and the aging society is used to analyze the impacts of an earthquake and the construction of industrial clusters. In the second model, the interregional input–output model is proposed in order to analyze the impacts of the earthquake and rapid population decline and construction of a biogas electricity power plant. In the third model, a new economic geography (NEG) model is proposed, consisting of the 47 prefectures of Japan in order to investigate the impacts of the Great East Japan and Nankai megathrust earthquakes and the associated tsunami and to consider how they change the regional economies of Japan. Using these three models, the impacts of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis on regional economies and reconstruction and on regional revitalization are evaluated.

• Great East Japan Earthquake and Indian Ocean Tsunami
• Negative Supply-shock
• Industrial Clusters
• Regional CGE and Input-output Model
• NEG Model Analysis

• Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Reitaku University Kashiwa, Chiba, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan

  Suminori Tokunaga

• Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

  Budy P. Resosudarmo

Suminori Tokunaga, Reitaku University


Budy P. Resosudarmo, The Australian National University

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