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Engineering Risk in Natural Resources Management

With Special References to Hydrosystems under Changes of Physical or Climatic Environment

  • L. Duckstein
  • E. Parent

Part of the NATO ASI Series book series (NSSE, volume 275)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xi
  2. System Framework

  3. The Changing Input Forcing Function

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 77-80
    2. Istvan Bogardi, Istvan Matyasovszky, Andras Bardossy, Lucien Duckstein
      Pages 97-129
  4. Stochastic Analysis under Nonstationary Conditions

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 145-147
    2. Irène Abi-Zeid, Bernard Bobée
      Pages 149-158
    3. Bernard Bobée, Peter Rasmussen, Luc Perreault, Fahim Ashkar
      Pages 177-190
  5. Regional Consequences of Climate Change

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 191-193
    2. Thomas Pohlmann, Jürgend Sündermann
      Pages 219-233
    3. Istvan Bogardi, Jacques Ganoulis, Lucien Duckstein, Istvan Matyasovszky
      Pages 253-265
    4. Jacques Ganoulis, Lucien Duckstein, Istvan Bogardi, Istvan Matyasovszky
      Pages 267-283
    5. B. Bobée, G. Cavadias
      Pages 285-285
  6. Engineering Decisions under Uncertainty and Risk

  7. Policy and Case Studies

  8. Back Matter
    Pages 469-473

About this book

Introduction

The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for estimating space-time stochastic properties of local climatic factors reflecting global climate change. Specifically, daily precipitation amount and daily mean temperature are considered and illustrated with application to the state of Nebraska, U. S. A. Furthermore, a drought index with and without global climate change is examined. The magnitude and consequences of regional response to anticipated climatic changes are uncertain (Houghton et al. , 1990). Typical questions to be answered are: can time series of hydrological events or 10cal climatic variables such as daily temperature be conditioned in scenarios of future climate change and if so, how can this be utilized ? Can extreme historical drought events be reproduced by a stochastic hydroc1imatological model ? Can such a model be used with General Circu1ation Model (GCM) outputs to evaluate the regional/local effects of climate change scenarios? The approach presented in this paper is an extension of the usual analysis of regional hydrometeorological impacts of climate change: we propose to examine time series of GCM­ produced daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CP), thought to be relatively accurate GCM output to estimate local climatic factors. The paper is organized as follows. First, daily CPs are classified and analyzed statistically, first for historical and then for GCM produced data. Next, the height of the 500 hPa pressure field is introduced as an additional physically relevant variable influencing local climatic factors within each CP type.

Keywords

Change Precipitation Storm Storm surge development linear optimization management system

Editors and affiliations

  • L. Duckstein
    • 1
  • E. Parent
    • 2
  1. 1.Systems and Industrial EngineeringThe University of ArizonaTucsonUSA
  2. 2.Department of Applied Mathematics, French Institute of ForestryAgricultural and Environmental EngineeringParisFrance

Bibliographic information

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8271-1
  • Copyright Information Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 1994
  • Publisher Name Springer, Dordrecht
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-90-481-4441-9
  • Online ISBN 978-94-015-8271-1
  • Series Print ISSN 0168-132X
  • Buy this book on publisher's site
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