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  • © 2016

The Tyranny of Uncertainty

A New Framework to Predict, Remediate and Monitor Risk

  • Explains why risk plans based on experience and statistical models often miss major sources of risk, in areas as diverse as information technology, business, government, environment, healthcare, and economy
  • Provides a blueprint of how to use mathematical emulation to expose and monitor unexpected sources of risk
  • Includes risk management use case examples for IT reengineering projects, business transformation projects, competitive strategy, supply chain management, healthcare, and economy

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Table of contents (34 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xxiv
  2. Once Upon a Time

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-2
    2. Framing the Risk Challenge

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 3-13
    3. Understanding the Hidden Risk of Dynamic Complexity

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 15-23
    4. Understanding the Nature of Risk

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 25-31
    5. Human Interaction and Perception of Risk

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 33-41
    6. Risk Evolves as Experience Evolves

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 43-52
    7. Why the Risk Comes as a Surprise

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 53-56
    8. Systemic and Systematic Risk

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 57-62
    9. How Risk Is Currently Mitigated Versus How It Should Be Mitigated

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 63-73
    10. Consequentialism Is Necessary

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 75-81
    11. Uncertainty Is the Enemy of Risk Management

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 83-89
  3. Unified View to Discover, Emulate, Predict, and Control Risk

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 91-92
    2. Modern Risk Management

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 93-103
    3. Evolution and Risk: The Bridge and the Missing Link

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 105-108
    4. The Role of Dynamic Complexity in Risk Propagation

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 109-111
    5. Scientific Deterministic Risk Management

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 113-117
    6. New Universal Risk Management Methodology (X-Act® OBC Platform)

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 119-125
    7. Risk Discovery: Using Patterns to Spot the Un-Spottable

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 127-138
    8. Predictive Modeling

      • Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt
      Pages 139-145

About this book

The authors offer a revolutionary solution to risk management. It’s the unknown risks that keep leaders awake at night—wondering how to prepare for and steer their organization clear from that which they cannot predict. Businesses, governments and regulatory bodies dedicate endless amounts of time and resources to the task of risk management, but every leader knows that the biggest threats will come from some new chain of events or unexpected surprises—none of which will be predicted using conventional wisdom or current risk management technologies and so management will be caught completely off guard when the next crisis hits. By adopting a scientific approach to risk management, we can escape the limited and historical view of experience and statistical based risk management models to expose dynamic complexity risks and prepare for new and never experienced events.

Reviews

“The book offers a detailed and thorough analysis of risk, and a new approach to analyze and approach the mitigation of risks. The techniques described are well worth considering by large organizations utilizing complex systems that evolve over time to adapt to changing conditions.” (G. R. Mayforth, Computing Reviews, February, 2017)

Authors and Affiliations

  • Accretive Technologies Inc, NEW YORK, USA

    Nabil Abu el Ata

  • Ingelheim, Germany

    Rudolf Schmandt

About the authors

Nabil Abu el Ata, as the CEO and founder of Accretive Technologies, he has invested over 20 years maturing the science of risk management and the practical application of the company’s solution offering, X-Act OBC Platform, with over 15 patents. He offers a breadth of analytical skills, risk management and business intelligence expertise, as well as IT and business process management knowledge. In the late 1970s Dr. Abu el Ata's mathematical discoveries provided accurate coordinates for space exploration. By solving a problem that was previously defined as unsolvable, Dr. Abu el Ata set the foundation for a new era of risk management, which today enables companies to more accurately predict future system behaviors and take strategic actions to improve business outcomes.

Rudolf Schmandt has implemented risk management systems for major German banks and is widely applauded for his abilities to trouble-shoot high-end Unix systems. Major career milestones include successful execution of a 47 country EMEA IT consolidation and reorganization, which resulted in a much less complex footprint and lower costs, as well as, 10 years of success managing one of the biggest outsourcing deals worldwide. In his current position as Head of EMEA and Retail production for Deutsche Bank and Postbank Systems board member, he maintains responsibilities for production within EMEA. His aspirations include the development and design of the next generation of IT operations for the region, which serves 60,000+ users with E2E services.



Bibliographic Information

Buy it now

Buying options

eBook USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Other ways to access