Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand

1. Front Matter

   Pages 1-16

   PDF

2. Electricity market

   • Kevin Berk

   Pages 5-9

3. Energy economy in enterprises

   • Kevin Berk

   Pages 11-23

4. Time series analysis

   • Kevin Berk

   Pages 25-52

5. A one factor model for medium-term load forecasting

   • Kevin Berk

   Pages 53-83

6. Retail contract evaluation and pricing

   • Kevin Berk

   Pages 85-89

7. MATLAB implementation

   • Kevin Berk

   Pages 91-95

8. Conclusion and outlook

   • Kevin Berk

   Pages 97-98

9. Back Matter

   Pages 99-115

   PDF

The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants.

• Energy Markets
• Load Forecasting
• Retail Contracts
• Risk Management
• Time Series Analysis

• Mathematik, Universität Siegen, Siegen, Germany

  Kevin Berk

Kevin Berk is a Ph.D. student at the Mathematics Department of the University Siegen, Germany. His major research focus is risk management and time series models with applications in energy markets.

Policies and ethics