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Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks

The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management

  • Craig E. Taylor

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xxi
  2. Introduction and Scope

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 1-1
    2. Craig E. Taylor
      Pages 3-20
  3. Discussion and Analysis of 17th-Early 20th Approaches to Understanding Risk

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 21-21
    2. Craig E. Taylor
      Pages 41-56
    3. Craig E. Taylor
      Pages 57-70
  4. The Dilemma of “Infinity”

  5. New Ways of Thinking

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 103-103
    2. Craig E. Taylor
      Pages 105-125
  6. Possible Futures

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 141-141
    2. Craig E. Taylor
      Pages 143-154
  7. Back Matter
    Pages 155-164

About this book

Introduction

This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies.  “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers.   To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas.   The book then introduces “robust simulation” which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables.  This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions.   The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.    

Keywords

Decision analysis Hazard modeling Natural disasters Risk assessment Risk strategies

Authors and affiliations

  • Craig E. Taylor
    • 1
  1. 1.Imagecat, Inc.TorranceUSA

Bibliographic information

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