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Stochastic Flood Forecasting System

The Middle River Vistula Case Study

  • Renata J. Romanowicz
  • Marzena Osuch

Part of the GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences book series (GEPS)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xvi
  2. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Flow Regime and River Morphology Based on Analytical Studies and Measurements

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 1-1
    2. M. Gutry-Korycka, A. Mirończuk, A. Hościło
      Pages 3-16
    3. Robert J. Bialik, Joanna Sziło, Mikołaj Karpiński, Agnieszka Rajwa-Kuligiewicz, Oskar Głowacki
      Pages 49-58
  3. Physically Based Modelling

  4. Lumped Parameter Approximation to Distributed Modelling of River Flow, Distributed Model Emulators and On-line Data Assimilation

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 141-141
    2. Renata J. Romanowicz, Marzena Osuch
      Pages 159-170
  5. Ensemble Forecasts, Linking Conceptual and Data-Based Models for Flow Forecasting

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 171-171
    2. Adam Kiczko, Renata J. Romanowicz, Marzena Osuch, Florian Pappenberger
      Pages 173-186
  6. End-User Interests

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 187-187
    2. Dorota Rucinska
      Pages 189-198

About this book

Introduction

This book presents the novel formulation and development of a Stochastic Flood Forecasting System,  using the Middle River Vistula basin in Poland as a case study. The system has a modular structure, including models describing the rainfall-runoff and snow-melt processes for tributary catchments and the transformation of a flood wave within the reach. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the elements of the study system are performed at both the calibration and verification stages. The spatial and temporal variability of catchment land use and river flow regime based on analytical studies and measurements is presented. A lumped parameter approximation to the distributed modelling of river flow is developed for the purpose of flow forecasting. Control System based emulators (Hammerstein-Wiener models) are  applied to on-line data assimilation. Medium-range probabilistic weather forecasts (ECMWF) and on-line observations of temperature, precipitation and water levels are used to prolong the forecast lead time. The potential end-users will also benefit from a description  of social vulnerability to natural hazards in the study area.

Keywords

Catchment Modelling Emulators Ensemble Forecasts Flood Forecasting Sensitivity Analysis Simulation Models Uncertainty Analysis

Editors and affiliations

  • Renata J. Romanowicz
    • 1
  • Marzena Osuch
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of GeophysicsWarszawaPoland
  2. 2.Institute of GeophysicsWarszawaPoland

Bibliographic information

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-18854-6
  • Copyright Information Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015
  • Publisher Name Springer, Cham
  • eBook Packages Earth and Environmental Science
  • Print ISBN 978-3-319-18853-9
  • Online ISBN 978-3-319-18854-6
  • Series Print ISSN 2190-5193
  • Series Online ISSN 2190-5207
  • Buy this book on publisher's site
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