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Population Change and the Economy: Social Science Theories and Models

  • Andrew M. Isserman

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xvii
  2. Economic Determinants of Fertility and Migration Rates

  3. Regional Economic-Demographic Modeling

  4. Interregional Economic-Demographic Modeling

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 157-157
    2. Walter Isard, Christine Smith
      Pages 159-175
    3. Andrei Rogers, Pamela Williams
      Pages 177-202
    4. Paul Beaumont, Andrew Isserman, David McMillen, David Plane, Peter Rogerson
      Pages 203-238
  5. The Challenges Ahead

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 239-239

About this book

Introduction

Population change and population forecasts are receiving considerable attention from governmental planners and policy-makers, as well as from the private sector. Old patterns of population redistribution, industrial location, labor-force participation, household formation, and fertility are changing. The resulting uncertainty has increased interest in forecasting because mere extrapolations of past trends are proving inadequate. In the United States of America popUlation forecasts received even more attention after federal agencies began distributing funds for capital infrastructure to state and local governments on the basis of projected future populations. If the national government had based those funding decisions on locally prepared projections, the optimism of local officials would have resulted in billions of dollars worth of excess capacity in sewage treatment plants alone. Cabinet-level inquiries concluded that the U. S. Department of Commerce should (1) assume the responsibility for developing a single set of projections for use whenever future population was a consideration in federal spending decisions and (2) develop methods which incorporate both economic and demographic factors causing population change. Neither the projections prepared by economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis nor those prepared by demographers at the Bureau of the Census were considered satisfactory because neither method adequately recognized the intertwined nature of demographic and economic change. Against this background, the American Statistical Association (ASA) and the U. S.

Keywords

economy fertility foundation migration population

Editors and affiliations

  • Andrew M. Isserman
    • 1
  1. 1.West Virginia UniversityUSA

Bibliographic information

  • DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4980-5
  • Copyright Information Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 1986
  • Publisher Name Springer, Dordrecht
  • eBook Packages Springer Book Archive
  • Print ISBN 978-94-010-8704-9
  • Online ISBN 978-94-009-4980-5
  • Buy this book on publisher's site
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