Advertisement

© 1990

Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy

Book

Part of the Theory and Decision Library book series (TDLA, volume 15)

Table of contents

  1. Front Matter
    Pages i-xi
  2. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 1-2
  3. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 3-6
  4. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 7-16
  5. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 17-34
  6. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 35-48
  7. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 49-68
  8. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 69-82
  9. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 83-98
  10. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 99-114
  11. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 115-122
  12. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 123-131
  13. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 132-155
  14. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 156-171
  15. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 172-191
  16. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 192-208
  17. Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz
    Pages 209-210
  18. Back Matter
    Pages 211-231

About this book

Introduction

60 -I 137.0~29 ERROR BARS • tONE (1" \ \ \ 4\0 \ \ E \ a. a. \ Z30 \ 137.0388 \ 0 137.0377 \ ~ \ ~20 \ \ 0 to 0 '50 Fig.1. Successive recommended values of the fine-structure constand IX-I (B. N. Taylor et 01., 1969,7) reminder that the value is not fully accepted by colleagues, since they will expect it to jump about for a while longer. Our next example is taken from a recent study in the social sciences. It shows how a set of related estimates of uncertainty can be expressed clearly and effectively by NUSAP. Suppose that we wish to forecast what the future price of a basic commodity might be, especially when at the moment its price is artificially maintained by a cartel of producers. There is no experimental evidence on such a future contingency, and yet we are not completely in the dark. There is a long history of expertise in the field; and there is a well-tried standard model by which experts' guesses can be translated into mathematical form.

Keywords

ETA algorithms calculus evaluation language management mathematics policy probability production quality research safety statistics valuation

Authors and affiliations

  1. 1.Commission of the European CommunitiesJoint Research CenterIspraItaly
  2. 2.The Research MethodsConsultancy Ltd.LondonUK

About the authors

S.O. Funtowicz is a Visiting Scientist at the European Community Joint Research Centre at Ispra (Varese), Italy. He has taught mathematics, logic and research methodology in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

J.R. Ravetz is the Chairman of the Council for Science and Society in London. He was formerly Reader in the History and Philosophy of Science at the University of Leeds. His previous writings include Scientific Knowledge and its Social Problems (Oxford, 1971) and The Merger of Knowledge with Power (Cassel, 1990).

Bibliographic information

Industry Sectors
Biotechnology
Finance, Business & Banking